Amid escalating tensions in West Asia, the fate of Esmail Qaani, the Commander of the Quds Force in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), remains uncertain. Following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month, Qaani traveled to Lebanon and has since vanished from public view.

While Iranian media has not commented on his status, reports from Turkish and Israeli news sources speculate that Qaani may be dead. The New York Times has cited unnamed IRGC officials confirming these suspicions.

Who is Esmail Qaani?

Qaani, 67, was born in Mashhad, Iran, and served in the Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. He became the head of Iran’s foreign operations after Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike in January 2020. Although he pledged to continue Soleimani’s legacy and eliminate US presence in the region, analysts say Qaani lacks the same influence and respect that Soleimani commanded, particularly among Iran’s allies in the Arab world.

Since taking over, Qaani has focused on managing Iran’s paramilitary allies across West Asia and has experience in operations beyond Iran’s borders. Unlike his predecessor, he prefers a low-profile approach and rarely speaks publicly.

Current Speculation and Concerns

Reports indicate that Qaani was in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut during recent Israeli airstrikes, which targeted Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah’s presumed successor. Following Nasrallah’s death, Qaani’s absence was conspicuous during a sermon led by Iran’s Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Israeli media have suggested that Qaani may have been injured or even killed in the strikes. While Lebanese authorities reportedly confirmed his death, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have not corroborated this information. Meanwhile, some Saudi channels speculated that he might have been executed by Iranian authorities over concerns of espionage with Israel’s Mossad.

Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani stated that the consequences of the strikes are still being evaluated, emphasizing the ongoing nature of their operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Potential Impact of His Fate

Should reports of Qaani’s death be confirmed, it would represent a significant setback for Iran and a notable victory for Israel, particularly in light of their ongoing military operations against Hezbollah. Experts believe that losing Qaani would weaken Iran’s military capabilities and escalate tensions in the region further. He is regarded as a key figure in managing Iran’s relationships with Hezbollah and other proxy groups, including the Houthis in Yemen and various Iraqi militias.

As Israel’s military continues its campaign, stating they have killed over 400 Hezbollah fighters, including several commanders, the situation remains precarious, with fears of further violence in the already unstable region.