Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a decisive victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Trump described it as a “magnificent victory for the American people” and thanked his supporters. However, this win left political analyst Allan Lichtman in shock.
In contrast to his usual confidence, Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions, was stunned by Trump’s advancing lead. During a six-hour YouTube livestream with his son Sam, Lichtman was visibly shocked as Trump inched closer to victory. When Pennsylvania was called for Trump, Lichtman stated, “I don’t get it.” He added, “This is the first moment of the night where I’ve lost hope a little bit.”
As the night wore on, Lichtman’s frustration grew. He appeared tired and stressed, remarking, “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. And I’m not doing any interviews.” Holding his head, he expressed his deep concerns, stating, “The democracy is gone.” He emphasized that once democracy is lost, “it’s almost impossible to recover.” According to Lichtman, recovery could only happen if dictators lose wars.
Meanwhile, Sam Lichtman remained hopeful. He said, “I hope Trump serves his term and we never have to deal with him again.” He also voiced his disbelief at how many people seemed to ignore Trump’s actions in 2020.
Lichtman then shifted his focus to a broader issue, saying, “Democracy is precious, but like all precious things, it can be destroyed.” He warned that democracy often falls from within, and stressed that “Democracy has been in decline everywhere around the world, and America has now fallen in step.” Despite this, he urged people, especially the youth, to keep striving, never giving up hope.
Lichtman’s predictions are based on his 13 “Keys to the White House” system, which he developed in 1981. This system focuses on governance rather than campaign tactics or demographics to forecast election outcomes. Remarkably, his model has correctly predicted every election since 1984, even when it contradicted popular opinion.
Before the election, Lichtman had predicted Kamala Harris would become the first female president of the United States. He boldly stated, “Consign them (opinion polls) to the flames,” suggesting that traditional polling methods were unreliable. Lichtman believes America is rapidly changing, becoming a majority-minority country. This reflects a shifting political and demographic landscape, one that Lichtman sees as foreshadowing the nation’s future.
