The economic slowdown is expected to finally catch up with
job creation in 2024. Some of 2023’s labour market resilience may have resulted
from the fact that employment is typically a lagging indicator, so weaknesses in
job creation are more likely to unfold some time after economic growth slows.
Thus, globally, employment growth is expected to remain positive in 2024, but
at rates of only 0.8 per cent in 2024 and 1.1 per cent in 2025 (less than half the employment growth of 2023). The situation is particularly concerning in highincome countries, where employment growth is expected to turn negative in 2024 and only modest improvements are anticipatedin 2025.Similarly, little gain inemployment is anticipated
among upper-middleincome countries over the next two years. In contrast, jobs gains in low-income and lower-middle-income countries will remain robust. Unlike in 2023, when
female employment growth outpaced that of men, in 2024 employment growth among women is expected to be lower than among men. Despite modest increases
in 2023, participation rates are set to decline in the coming years. Recent increases in labour market participation rates are likely to have been buoyed by a stronger than anticipated job market. However, in 2024 and 2025, participation rates are expected to decline across all income groups (except lowincome countries, where they are set to remain stable in 2024 but then decline the following year) and for both men and women. The anticipated fall in participation rates is more pronounced among women, for whom
between 2023 and 2025 it is expected to fall 0.7 percentage points globally, compared with 0.1 percentage points among men. Unemployment is expected to rise modestly. Projections show that unemployment rates are set to remain broadly stable over the next two years.
As labour force participation rates decline and employment growth slows, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain near current levels, edging up from 5.1 per cent in 2023 to 5.2 per cent in 2024 and remaining unchanged in 2025. This upward tick is primarily a result of the rising unemployment rates expected among high-income countries (an increase of 0.2 percentage points from 2023 levels to reach 4.7 per cent in 2024).
A modest uptick in unemployment is expected to disproportionately affect men.
The unemployment rate of women is set to remain stable at 5.3 per cent through the forecast period, whereas that of men is expected to rise modestly in 2024 (by 0.1 percentage points) and then decline by the same magnitude in 2025.Global unemployment
is projected to increase in 2024 by around 2 million. The modest increase in the unemployment rate will translate into an increase in global unemployment of 2 million in 2024, rising to 190.8 million from the188.6 million in 2023. The outlook for unemployment
in 2024 is broadly consistent across income groups, each country group being expected to see an increase in unemployment. The increase is expected to be highest (1 million in total) in high-income countries
