GOP pollster Mitchell Brown predicts a rare outcome in the upcoming election. Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will win all three key battleground states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This hasn’t happened since 1988.
Current Landscape of Battleground States
Brown observes that while Trump appears strong in states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, it is unlikely for any candidate to secure victories in all three key states. In previous elections, Trump won all three states in 2016, while Biden took them in 2020.
These battlegrounds—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are critical in determining the next president. They have historically shifted between Democratic and Republican candidates.
The Significance of Wisconsin
Wisconsin has played a crucial role in recent elections. In both 2016 and 2020, the state determined the winner by a narrow margin of just over 20,000 votes. Analysts suggest that third-party candidates could sway results in tight races like Wisconsin, especially when running against the two major parties.
Trump has highlighted Wisconsin’s importance, stating, “If we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing.” The state was also the venue for the summer Republican National Convention, emphasizing its strategic role.
Pennsylvania’s Historical Impact
In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania was pivotal for Biden as he reclaimed the “blue wall.” Historically, Democratic candidates have performed well there, except for Trump’s victory in 2016.
Winning these battleground states is critical for presidential hopefuls. The only candidate to win them and still lose was Al Gore, who lost to George W. Bush.
Final Predictions
Brown stated, “What I see is that neither candidate will win all three states. If Trump secures even one, he wins the election. I still think Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the most likely to go for Trump, but if turnout is high and we see a repeat of previous trends, Trump could take all three, leaving Kamala with none.”
