T he victory of the Bhartiya Janta Party in Gujarat was well-being projected in advance when AAP has begun its presence in the Gujarat election with a hyper campaigning. Even after the polling, the victory of the BJP in Gujarat was estimated to be a huge victory in the last two decades, as several exit polls posit their data. However, the reason for this estimated victory of the BJP before polling was more attested to the division of Non-BJP voters due to AAP’s entry into the scene while making the fight in Gujarat a ‘triangular fight’ with Congress remaining as the major contender.
Although the development and people’s attachment to BJP –reasons for winning the election – were not given much priority by many analysts before the election result. But the result of the grand victory of the BJP shows that the party has gained very little from the prioritized cause– the division of non-BJP voters amid AAP’s entry into the competition –of winning the election in 2022. As the vote sharing of parties is concerned, a vote swing takes place from Congress to AAP with less than a 13 per cent of margin whereas, the vote swing from BJP to other parties as expected due to a ‘triangular fight’ got dismissed and BJP, on the other hand, gained its vote share in comparison to the previous election.
So, the Modi factor, the matter of Gujarat’s pride, satisfaction from the development, the courageous work of karyakartas and the unavailability of other options in Gujarat remain strong reasons for the grand victory of the BJP in Gujarat. The success of the BJP in Gujarat was an easy one being Gujarat a bastion of BJP’s politics but such a grand triumph this time could only be attested with the contribution of PM Modi or the Modi factor while he did more than 31 rallies during the election. PM Modi remains a prime figure in leading BJP’s campaign and did more than 100 KM roadshows despite being a state election. He even visited his home state many times in the last six months and it all begins after Uttar Pradesh’s assembly election result. He is the most popular leader in India and being from Gujarat PM Modi is being loved as a pride of Gujarat by the Gujrati people. This is the factor that BJP utilized beautifully in this election to win the election. He recalled the avoidance and disrespect of Gujarat and its leaders in history by the Congress and puts up the cause for Gujarati pride among the common masses. The people really voted for BJP in vast numbers on the same line to feel and assert their presence in the nation’s building as a pride.
One could imagine the possibility of an anti-incumbency factor as the party ruled for consecutive 27 years in Gujarat but at the ground level, the result proves completely otherwise. Even the voting turnover also appears to be low in comparison to the last election. The reason is very clear in the sense that people have a very similar opinion with the development that BJP brought in Gujarat. Many Gujrati believes that the performance of the BJP government in terms of overall governance is outstanding and they also attested to the fact that drinking water facility, roads, availability of electricity, and condition of government school and hospitals have improved drastically in the last five years. The people of Gujrat have given a mandate to BJP’s Double-Engine model of governance which is even applicable to BJP in many other states as well. The success of good governance for the BJP not only helped the party in retaining its old voters rather it also engaged successfully in gaining Patidar voters who were not happy with the ruling party in the previous election. Therefore, the reasons for BJP’s triumph overall lie in its own past success with the PM Modi factor rather than a division among Non-BJP due to AAP’s entry into the scene.
