In a move that could redefine the political landscape of Haryana, the historic city of Karnal, long known as the “CM-City,” is on the verge of losing its coveted status as the chief minister’s seat. With the current Chief Minister Nayab Saini reportedly planning to contest from Ladwa of Kurukshetra in the upcoming October 1 assembly elections, Karnal may no longer be the epicenter of power in the state.
BJP insiders have disclosed that Saini, currently the MLA from Karnal, is more inclined to contest from the rural constituency of Ladwa in Kurukshetra district. Several factors seem to favor this shift, not least of which is the significant Saini voter base in Ladwa, bolstered by the fact that Saini’s ancestral village of Mangholi falls within the constituency.
Additionally, Ladwa holds a historical significance for the BJP, having elected Pawan Saini in 2014. “Contesting from Ladwa would allow the Chief Minister to dedicate more time to campaigning across other districts, thereby enhancing the BJP’s influence in nearby constituencies such as Thanesar, Indri, Shahbad, and Radaur,” said a senior BJP leader, who requested anonymity.
If Nayab changes his constituency, this would mark the third different constituency from which Nayab Singh Saini has contested. Initially, he served as the MLA from Naraingarh in Ambala district, where he first secured victory in 2014. However, Saini has shown little interest in returning to Naraingarh, instead setting his sights on Ladwa, which falls under the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha constituency—a seat he represented in 2019, giving him a strategic advantage.
Despite a section of the BJP favoring Saini’s continued presence in Karnal, the caste dynamics of the semi-urban constituency present significant challenges. Karnal’s electorate is predominantly composed of Punjabi, Baniya, and Brahmin communities, with the Saini vote share estimated at a mere 6,000. In contrast, Ladwa offers a more favorable demographic, albeit with a notable Jat population. A divided Jat vote could potentially swing the election in the BJP’s favor, especially with Congress’s sitting MLA Mewa Singh being a strong contender for the ticket once again. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is also expected to field a strong candidate, possibly from the influential Sher Singh Barshami family, further complicating the electoral calculus.
Saini had registered his resounding victory in the by-election, where he upheld former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s legacy by securing over 41,500 votes—62% of the total votes cast—on Khattar’s assurance that Karnal would remain the “CM-City.”
However, with Saini likely to vacate Karnal, the Congress has quickly moved to capitalize on the opportunity. Former Karnal MLA Sumita Singh, who refrained from contesting the by-election against Saini, has launched a vigorous campaign to reclaim the constituency.
Singh, along with 23 other Congress hopefuls, including Tarlochan Singh and Manoj Wadhwa, has applied for the party’s ticket from Karnal. But none of them could be considered as the CM candidate of the Congress party. On the other hand Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already declared Nayab as chief ministerial candidate of the BJP.
Karnal’s political significance first came to the fore in 2014 when Manohar Lal Khattar, a political newcomer at the time, was parachuted into the seat amidst considerable controversy. Despite internal protests labeling him an “outsider,” Khattar won the seat by a margin of 63,773 votes and was sworn in as the 10th Chief Minister of Haryana on October 26, 2014. Karnal thus emerged as the new “CM-City,” a title it retained through Khattar’s second term, albeit with a reduced victory margin of 45,188 votes in 2019.
Over the past decade, Karnal has enjoyed the benefits of being chosen for the Union Government’s Smart City project but has also faced its share of unrest, particularly as a focal point for farmer protests.
