In September 2024, Reliance Jio solidified its leadership in India’s telecom sector by adding 1.7 million active subscribers, as reported by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) and highlighted in a Morgan Stanley research report. This growth stands in contrast to the losses experienced by competitors Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea (Vi), which saw declines of 1.3 million and 3.1 million active subscribers, respectively.
The telecom industry as a whole faced a reduction of 1.5 million active subscribers, marking the third consecutive month of decline and bringing the total active subscriber base to 1.06 billion. This trend suggests potential SIM consolidation, particularly in B and C circles, where subscriber numbers decreased by 3.2 million and 0.9 million, respectively. Conversely, metropolitan and A circles experienced gains, with 1.8 million and 0.7 million subscribers added, indicating stronger tariff absorption in urban markets.
Jio‘s success is attributed to its strategic decision to avoid tariff hikes, especially in the feature phone segment, appealing to price-sensitive customers. Morgan Stanley noted, “Reliance Jio tweaked some of its geographic-specific ISD (International Subscriber Dialing) plans, launched last month, although other TSPs do not have any geographic-specific ISD plans.” Specifically, Jio reduced the price of its ISD Pack for Bangladesh from ₹49 to ₹47 (seven-day validity, 20 minutes ISD calling) and increased the price of its ISD Pack for Australia and New Zealand from ₹69 to ₹75 (seven-day validity, 15 minutes ISD calling). Additionally, Jio expanded the coverage of its ₹79 ISD plan (seven-day validity, 10 minutes ISD calling) to now include France, alongside the UK, Spain, and Germany.
A Jefferies report added, “Lack of tariff hikes by BSNL/MTNL and no tariff hike in feature phone segment by Jio continues to support market share gains.” This strategy has allowed Jio to adjust its international subscriber dialing (ISD) plans to offer more attractive options.
State-owned BSNL, which had seen significant gains in the previous two months, experienced a slowdown in September, adding 1.5 million wireless data broadband subscribers—a notable drop from the average of 5.6 million in July and August. BSNL also lost subscribers in six circles, indicating that its market share gains are moderating. Despite this, the absence of tariff hikes from BSNL and MTNL continues to offer an advantage in certain price-sensitive markets, with a combined addition of 1.2 million subscribers.
Analysts suggest that while BSNL and MTNL may continue to capture some market share due to their lower tariffs, they are unlikely to significantly challenge the dominance of Jio and Airtel in the long term. Their growth potential is seen as limited, especially in the face of Jio’s continued expansion and premium offerings.
In the wireline broadband segment, growth moderated in September, with net additions of 0.79 million subscribers, down from 0.86 million in August. Despite this, Jio and Airtel continued to make strong strides, with Jio adding 0.62 million subscribers, increasing its market share to 32.5%, and Airtel adding 0.19 million, bringing its market share to 19.4%. BSNL, however, faced a setback, losing over 52,000 wireline subscribers.
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The recent declines in subscriber numbers among private telecom operators can be attributed to the tariff hikes implemented in July 2024, with private players losing a combined total of 10.9 million subscribers. In contrast, BSNL gained 0.8 million subscribers, benefiting from its lower pricing strategy.
