The importance of the Haryana state elections cannot be undermined. For one every election is crucial, no matter how big or small the state. And second, these are the first elections post the Lok Sabha and it is interesting to see whether the national trends have held. At first glance it seems as if they have not, for the BJP seems to be on a comeback trail both in Haryana and Jammu. In Haryana particularly the BJP’s win is significant because it reiterates the party’s image as a vote winning machine. This image was dented during the Lok Sabha polls – atleast in terms of optics. But if you look at it objectively then winning a third term itself was no mean feat, however the BJP had raised its own bar to 400 + thereby taking the sheen away from its own tally of 240+. However, the comprehensive wins in both Haryana and Jammu have reiterated its status as a vote winning party. Post 4th June, these elections are a huge shot in the arm for the BJP, as far as the Modi-Shah duo are concerned.
The elections in Haryana were fought more on a national narrative than a state one. The Congress made a huge deal of the Agniveer scheme, the anger of the jawans and the kissan, not to mention the wrestlers. They also questioned why the Prime Minister was absent from the poll hoardings and the campaign ground. Well, they got their answer on 8th October.
Credit should also go to former CM and union cabinet minister, Manohar Lal Khattar who worked alongside Amit Shah, on ground both in terms of ticket selection as well as on strategy management. This win could cinch his candidature as the BJP’s next president for it is no secret that he is Shah and Modi’s candidate for the post. The RSS which had been pushing a Modi bete noir will have to rethink and tone down its (implicit) criticism of the Prime Minister.
As far as the Congress is concerned, the elections in Haryana pretty much went the Chhattisgarh way. At that time as well, the Congress was confident of retaining the state in the assembly polls under the leadership of the sitting CM Bhupesh Baghel. That did not happen. Here too, the Congress was confident that under the leadership of former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda it would sweep the state. So much so that even before the votes were cast the party had begun fighting over the CM stakes – with Kumari Selja throwing in her hat.
As far as the Congress is concerned, the elections in Haryana pretty much went the Chhattisgarh way. At that time as well, the Congress was confident of retaining the state in the assembly polls under the leadership of the sitting CM Bhupesh Baghel. That did not happen. Here too, the Congress was confident that under the leadership of former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda it would sweep the state. So much so that even before the votes were cast the party had begun fighting over the CM stakes – with Kumari Selja throwing in her hat. Was it the infighting that lost the Congress the state? Was it over confidence? Did the Congress make a mistake in giving Hooda a free hand during ticket selection? Kumari Selja managed to get about 6 to 9 seats for her supporters while Randip Surjewala got a couple and the Gandhis kept about 9 to 10 for their key people. The rest, seventy plus seats went to Hooda’s candidates.
But it is not just Haryana. The Congress could not stop the BJP in Jammu where it got less than 10 seats. The win in J&K is largely thanks to the National Conference and Omar Abdullah. This also will send a message to the INDIA bloc which had been maintaining that a large share of the credit for the Lok Sabha wins went to the regional allies and not the Congress party. If you look at it, the wins the INDIA bloc got in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu were thanks to the allies, as was West Bengal. The two allies that crumbled in the face of the NDA were AAP and RJD. Where the Congress took on the BJP directly it was more or less advantage BJP.
So these elections have thrown up a lot of food for thought, and will have an impact that far transcends their state borders.
