A recent national poll conducted by ABC News and Ipsos reveals Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters. Conducted from October 29 to November 1, this survey shows 49% backing Harris compared to 46% supporting Trump, giving Harris a 3-point advantage.
Stable Lead Over Weeks
The poll follows similar trends from recent weeks. Last week, Harris led Trump by 4 points, with 51% to Trump’s 47%, and two weeks prior, she held a 2-point lead. Since Harris replaced President Biden as the Democrats’ nominee, she’s consistently maintained a slim advantage in national polls.
GOP and Democrat Crossover Support
Interestingly, the poll highlights some crossover support between parties. Harris garnered 7% of Republican support, while Trump received 3% from Democrats. Among ideological groups, 11% of conservatives back Harris, while 4% of liberals support Trump.
Independent Voters: The Deciding Factor?
Independent voters show a slight preference for Harris over Trump, with Harris leading by 5 points (49% to 44%). Breaking it down by gender, independent women favor Harris by a wide margin (55% to 37%), whereas Trump has a narrower lead among independent men, 49% to 45%.
Notable Gender Gap
Gender plays a significant role in this poll, showing a 16-point gap overall. Harris leads among women by 11 points, 53% to 42%, while Trump has a 5-point edge among male voters, leading 50% to 45%.
National Average Shows Neck-and-Neck Race
Despite Harris’s lead in this poll, the national polling average compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ paints a near tie, with Trump ahead by a slim 0.2 points (48.3% to 48.1%).
This final ABC News/Ipsos poll, which surveyed 2,267 likely voters with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, sets the stage for a closely contested Election Day.
