After voting took place on seven seats in the state on Wednesday, the calculations regarding victory and defeat have begun. Various estimates and speculations are circulating, with some predicting that the BJP could win 4 to 5 seats in these by-elections, while others foresee a 3 to 4 seat victory. However, it is now clear that the BJP is likely to secure more than its current seat count, while Congress may face setbacks.
Among these seven seats, Dausa and Khinvsar stand out as key battlegrounds that will shape the political future of two prominent state leaders from different castes. If the BJP wins Dausa, it will signal that Kirodi Lal Meena, the state minister, still holds considerable political influence. On the other hand, if Hanuman Beniwal succeeds in getting his wife elected from Khinvsar, it will cement his ongoing political relevance and influence.
Meena is considered to have a hold in the Meena community while Beniwal has a hold in the Jat community. However, both leaders have suffered setbacks in the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections. Beniwal somehow managed to save his Khinvsar seat in the assembly elections, but in the Lok Sabha elections, he won the Nagaur seat by forming an alliance with the Congress. Now he is alone in the byelections. On the other hand, Meena could neither make him win the assembly elections held in Dausa last year, nor the Lok Sabha elections held this year. Congress’s Murari Lal Meena shocked him by winning both the elections. When Kirodi Lal Meena failed in his area in the Lok Sabha elections, he resigned from his ministerial post.
Kirodi Lal Meena had forced the BJP as well as Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma by resigning. In such a situation, his pressure politics worked. On his demand, the party gave a ticket to Jagmohan Meena in the byelection. Initially, it seemed that Meena would easily get his brother elected, but the campaign proved that he was sweating. Many things are coming to the fore regarding Dausa. One is that the people can also vote against nepotism. Secondly, Brahmins also consider this seat as their own. Therefore, they can vote against BJP. However, who voted for whom will be known on the day of results on November 23. In such a situation, the heartbeat of Meena and his family will remain increased till then because defeat will bring his political life under question. The seven seats of Rajasthan on which voting took place on Wednesday are Khinvsar, Dausa, Jhunjhunu, Chaurasi, Deoli Uniara, Ramgarh and Salumbar.
Out of these, BJP had won only Salumbar seat last year. The rest were with the opposition parties. Of these, maximum three seats came in the share of Congress.
On the other hand, the political future of Hanuman Beniwal, who became a leader through Jat politics, will also come under question because he has given a tough challenge to both Congress and BJP. He has also become a headache for both parties. For the first time, everything was at stake in Khinvsar. His tough fight with BJP is being foreseen. Congress has surrendered from the very first day. It is also in the interest of Congress that BJP somehow wins the Khinvsar seat. This will keep a check on Beniwal. Beniwal started out in politics with BJP. Then he formed his regional party, which was named Rashtriya Loktantra Party. He has performed well in Jat dominated areas in the 2018 assembly elections. After this, he won the
Lok Sabha elections in the year 2019 by forming an alliance with BJP. He focused on farmers’ issues but faced a major setback in last year’s assembly elections. Now his political standing depends on the results of the byelection held on the Khinvsar seat. Defeat will weaken his political career, and victory will be able to revive it.
