Monday’s events in Bangladesh may have affected the geopolitical course of the Indian subcontinent for at least the foreseeable future. A coup of sorts saw the ouster of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The coup was engineered by the Bangladesh Army, which, apparently, gave her a notice of 45 minutes to quit. In these new age coups, military tanks do not roll into the Prime Minister’s residence—that is bad optics and will stop the flow of funds from western countries that claim to live by democracy and are sensitive to such sights, even though unseen hands from their shores may have been involved in such regime changes. The Bangladesh Army will now take charge through an interim government either directly or as the power behind the throne.
Given that the Army chief, in his press conference, mentioned the names of the Jamaat-e-Islami and the BNP—in that order—as the parties he is conferring with to form the interim government, it is certain that the anti-India BNP and its associate, the radical Jamaat will be a part of the interim government. The rise of the Jamaat and BNP drastically reduces New Delhi’s influence in Dhaka. That Pakistanis are celebrating New Delhi’s “ouster” from Dhaka, should give an idea of which way the Jamaat is inclined. In fact, the Jamaat has its roots in the Razakars, who were collaborators with the Pakistan Army and were the worst kind of oppressors of the people of the then East Pakistan. Ironically, as the Jamaat comes closer to power, TV visuals show the rioters—many of whom came from Jamaat ranks—vandalizing the statue of Sheikh Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the man who got Bangladesh freedom in 1971, with India’s help. It’s almost as if Bangladesh is undoing over 50 years of its history.
At one level, Hasina’s ouster was a direct fallout of her mishandling of the genuine anger on the streets against quotas in jobs. In trying to curb the unrest, her police and party workers were heavy handed, leading to the deaths of several students. This was taken advantage of by unscrupulous elements, who infiltrated the students’ protests. Once the quotas were scrapped by the Supreme Court, the protests died down but only for a short time. It resurfaced with the demand of the removal of the Hasina government. In the crackdown that followed hundreds were killed, inflaming passions. Given the major involvement of the Jamaat cadre, the question is how organic these protests are. After all, it’s the Jamaat that has the street power to bring life to a standstill in large parts of Bangladesh. Sadly, Hindus are being targeted in the violence that is sweeping through the country, indicating the extent of Islamist/jihadi influence on the streets of Bangladesh. To a limited extent, Hasina was successful in keeping these anti Hindu elements under check. Even then there were periodic riots that targeted Hindus, especially in the rural areas. Ominous signs are coming of this likely to increase.
A serious question now is how much external support these protests got. It is well known that the United States was trying to get Hasina out for a long time, for the alleged backsliding of democracy, while turning a blind eye to all of Pakistan’s transgressions, including sending a Prime Minister to prison and rigging an election. The US ambassador to Dhaka, Peter D. Haas, was regularly talking with the Opposition, throwing all diplomatic norms to the wind. The Biden administration, in the name of democracy and human rights, was essentially fighting for the right of the Razakars to fight elections, without going into history to see how undemocratic and radicalised these forces are. Essentially, Biden’s Bangladesh policy is a reflection of the influence that Wahhabi elements in the US have on the State Department—Wahhabis who have been lobbying hard to get India black-listed and sanctioned for so-called “human rights violations”.
It is these Wahhabis who want to control Bangladesh and the rise of the radical Jamaat strengthens their hands. That their rise causes a problem for the US’ strategic partner India, does not seem to be a concern for Washington, DC, as long as Biden’s “values based foreign policy” is served—whatever those illusory values might be. The China question also comes into the equation. Hasina had a bad visit to China. She announced that she preferred India to China in a Teesta river project near India’s border. This would have angered Beijing. It has to be seen whether the new rulers too favour India over China, given their aversion towards India. If not, India will have a Chinese project coming up right next to its border—in fact strategically located near the Siliguri chicken’s neck corridor that connects the Northeast to the rest of India. The obvious question is, what role Beijng played in the ouster of Hasina.
The bottom line is, Hasina’s removal will have security and strategic implications for India. It will now have to live with another anti-India neighbour, which is going down the path of Wahhabi extremism. With arson and violence sweeping through the country, India will have to brace for an increasing influx of illegal immigrants. India will have to tread carefully through what is now a veritable minefield of forces aligned against it. As for the economic marvel that Bangladesh was proving to be, that story is over, at least for the time being.
