Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the “Nostradamus” of U.S. Presidential Elections, has failed to correctly predict the outcome of the most recent polls. A political scientist and professor at American University, Lichtman had accurately forecasted nine out of the last ten U.S. presidential elections. However, this time, he predicted that Kamala Harris would win and become the 47th President of the United States. Instead, the Republican Party’s Donald Trump triumphed, securing 270 electoral votes and the presidency.
Lichtman has since pointed to the surge in disinformation and the influence of billionaire Elon Musk as factors that led to his wrong prediction. Speaking to News Nation, he elaborated on how these elements shaped the election.
‘Number One, Disinformation’
Lichtman didn’t hesitate to criticize conservative media platforms, which he claimed had spent millions promoting Trump’s campaign. “Number one, disinformation. We’ve always had disinformation, but disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree,” he said. He also attributed much of the election’s divisiveness to the spread of misleading narratives, stating that “a lot of that grievance was driven by disinformation.”
In addition, Lichtman blamed Elon Musk, a known Trump supporter, for using his social media platform, X, to promote the president-elect. Lichtman pointed out that Musk publicly endorsed Trump and attended several of his rallies. “We’ve seen something brand new this time – billionaire Elon Musk putting his thumb on the scales,” Lichtman remarked. He further emphasized that Musk’s influence spread misinformation on key issues such as immigration, hurricane relief, and the war in Ukraine. “His misinformation had billions, literally billions of views, and this has spread to every aspect of this election,” he added.
Lichtman’s prediction methodology, known as the “Keys to the White House,” relies on 13 true-false statements about the incumbent president’s party. If six of these are deemed false, it typically signals an opposition victory. Lichtman argued that the effectiveness of his model is now under question due to the overwhelming influence of disinformation. “The premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get four more years. But if the views of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, particularly driven by those who are so rich that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then maybe the premise of the keys need to be changed,” he explained.
Lichtman, who has been making presidential predictions since 1984, had previously forecasted Trump’s impeachment during his first term. His predictions have proven accurate twice—first in December 2019, and again in January 2021.
