World leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) nations are gathering in Brazil on Monday for their annual summit, where they will confront a changing global order with the election of US President-elect Donald Trump. The agenda, initially focused on sustainable development, climate change, and global security, faces disruption as Trump has pledged significant policy shifts, from trade tariffs to a fresh approach to the conflict in Ukraine.
While US President Joe Biden arrives as a “lame duck” with only two months left in office, China’s President Xi Jinping emerges as a prominent voice amid tense geopolitical conditions influenced by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. A German official, speaking anonymously, noted concerns over China’s expanding economic role, suggesting that Beijing’s support for Russia on Ukraine might wane due to the conflict’s proximity and Russia’s use of North Korean troops.
Diplomats working to draft a unified statement on the Ukraine war face challenges in reaching consensus, even for a broad appeal for peace. A recent Russian airstrike on Ukraine has fueled European diplomats’ calls for tougher language on the conflict, as the US responded by removing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons to target Russian territory.
Brazil, hosting the summit, initially aimed to prioritize issues like taxing the ultra-wealthy and global poverty alleviation. However, Brazilian officials expect these objectives could falter under Trump’s upcoming influence, which tends to oppose multilateralism. Brazilian sources indicate skepticism about Trump’s support for reforms to global financial governance, an area the Lula administration had hoped to advance.
Xi’s visit to Brazil, which will conclude with a state visit in Brasília, is expected to promote China’s Belt and Road Initiative, though Brazil has thus far declined to join. This decision has strained relations, according to Li Xing, a professor affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who noted China’s disappointment
Amid potential US-China trade tensions, Trump’s plan for new tariffs on Chinese goods adds further strain. Additionally, Trump’s new ally in Latin America, Argentine President Javier Milei, has resisted Brazil’s push for taxing the wealthy, challenging any unified stance on the issue within the G20.
