The Delhi government has received suggestions to deal with the coronavirus situation in view of the upcoming winter and festival season. The National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has prepared a report with the guidelines of the expert group headed by NITI Aayog member Dr V.K. Paul. The report, titled ‹Revised Strategy 3.0 for Corona Control in Delhi›, has warned that 15,000 cases a day can be encountered in Delhi.
The report has been submitted to the Delhi government, noting several important points. According to the report, breathing problems are more severe in winter. Moreover, a large number of patients can come from outside Delhi and patients coming from far away can be more serious. Cases can increase suddenly due to the festivals too, so the report has recommended that Delhi prepare itself for seeing up to 15,000 positive cases on a daily basis and arrange 20% i.e., 3,000 beds in the hospitals for the treatment of patients of moderate to severe diseases. Accordingly, arrangements should be made for ICU, non-ICU, Covid care isolation, etc.
Since large gatherings increase the risk of infection, the NCDC reported has asked the Delhi government to stop them under any circumstances. It has been observed that in the coming times, Chhath Puja, Diwali, Dussehra, Christmas, Eid, and New Year celebrations will pose a challenge for controlling the pandemic. Ithas also been noted that after Onam in Kerala and Ganesh Utsav in Maharashtra, the number of coronavirus cases has increased very rapidly. The report said that this should not happen in Delhi, because if it does, all the work done so far can be a waste.
The government has also been advised to establish coordination with the Opposition, religious leaders and common people to prevent large crowds from gathering during the festivals. The next three months will be crucial in the war against the virus, the report has stated.
In the NCDC report, certain suggestions have also been given regarding testing in Delhi. The report has said that the way in which the number of tests has been increased in Delhi is not a specific method. It has been said that the Covid-positive rate is higher in 6-8 districts but the number of tests is very less. The report has also suggested that testing should not be done with a definite target but on the basis of the Covid-positive individual and persons exposed to them in containment zones. It is not important to get more tests done but to get more information about others using these tests, the report said.
According to the report, as of September 24, data has shown that more than 80%, and sometimes 90 to 95%, of the testing in some districts is being done by the Rapid Antigen Test with a positive rate of only 4.3%. In the remaining cases, the positivity rate is 20.33% from the tests performed by RT-PCR.
The report has also mentioned that more testing is being done in railway stations, bus stations and crowded places where most people are without symptoms, while containment zone testing and testing of people exposed to infected people constitute only 20% of the total testing. The report has further noted that, in Delhi, the death toll in the age group between 16 to 44 years is more than 17%, and patients of this age group can be saved from dying if they get timely testing and treatment. Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain said, «The report said that 15,000 cases can come up daily.
Although the trend of the last 15 days shows that the cases in Delhi are decreasing, not increasing. We still have 16,000 beds in Delhi, out of which only 40% are occupied by patients. We can handle things even if cases increase a bit. We have seen a peak of 4500 cases daily and even then 50-55% beds were filled in the hospital. If we need to increase them, we will. Till now, Delhi has not seen 15,000 cases on a daily basis. So far, the maximum it has gone up to is 4,400-4,500 cases a day.”
