The latest crisis in West Asia is playing according to the script, as far as the Hamas and its backers are concerned. When it carried out its heinous attack on Israel on 7 October, the Hamas would have anticipated Israel’s devastating response. No country can sit quietly when over a thousand of its citizens are butchered on its own soil in one of the most devastating terrorist attacks in recent history—certainly not Israel, which has been fending off enemies posing an existential threat to it ever since its creation in 1948, and has built a formidable reputation in the process. Initially caught unawares, Israel hit back with expected ferocity, raining down bombs on Hamas hideouts. But the civilian toll of such devastation has been quite high—as would have been anticipated by Hamas. Thousands have been killed in Gaza in the last ten days. This toll may go up even further if Israel decides to send in its troops into the heavily populated Gaza strip, home to 2.2 million people, especially if, as Israel says, Hamas uses civilians as human shields. Now that 24X7 news television and social media are full of images of Palestinian dead babies and families, the narrative building by Hamas against what it calls “Israeli oppression” is going on at a frenetic pace, inflaming passions across the Arab-Muslim world. Such is the peddling of narrative that within seconds of a rocket allegedly destroying a hospital in Gaza that Hamas and its followers were spreading the “news” that 500 babies had been killed by Israeli bombing, a serious war crime. This claim was taken at face value by the world media, which, however, had to retract the news once it was found that the rocket had destroyed the hospital’s parking lot and that it was likely fired, or misfired, by a Hamas allied terrorist organisation, Islamic Jihad. So essentially, for the Hamas, and its ecosystem, it has come down to showing images of dead babies to earn the world’s sympathies, and to draw equivalence to its own crimes against Israeli babies and civilians. But there is a fundamental problem here—while Palestinian civilians are caught in a web of violence for decades and their deaths are terribly tragic and cannot be justified, what is happening now is the devastating fallout of a war that the Hamas has thrust upon Palestinians by its actions. Hamas’ cruelty against Israelis was an act of terrorism, resembling what the ISIS does to its victims, or even what the Nazis did to the Jewish people. Without that there wouldn’t be any Israeli reaction. So that is why the Hamas are terrorists, not resistance fighters. They also do not have the right to call themselves the representatives of the people of Gaza. People’s representatives defend the people, they do not push them to death’s door—wilfully.
Amid this US President Joe Biden arrived in Israel to show his support to Tel Aviv, and names like Great Satan-Little Satan return to the lexicon of the radicals. As supporters of the Palestinian cause take out street demonstrations in the West, there are rumours that protesters will lay siege to American embassies in the Arab-Muslim world. As prospects of a rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world recede into the background, the Arab-Muslim world seems to be turning against the US, once again, reminiscent of the days leading up to 9/11 and in its aftermath. But there was no China at the time to play along the existing and emerging faultlines. The current standoff is taking place when China is a geopolitical player second only to the US, and considers the oil-rich Arab world a major strategic pillar in its quest to become the numero uno superpower. No wonder the Chinese are showing all signs of choosing a side in the war. It is criticising Israel for the hospital bombing, while Biden is categorical that the bombing is the handiwork of the other side, meaning the Hamas and other allied outfits. In whose direction would the Arab-Muslim world, with its deep sense of grievance, turn in such a scenario? As it is Biden’s foolish handling of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi had pushed MBS towards China. It was India’s efforts that brought MBS and Biden on the same platform to announce the India Middle East Economic Corridor, whose future now may be in jeopardy, Iran is anyway close to China and it is again Beijing that has been trying to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran closer, to offset moves by the US to bring Israel and Saudi closer. A game of terribly violent chess is being played in West Asia, and it appears to have been scripted to give China a lot of strategic space.
What happens next is anybody’s guess, for if Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza, there is a possibility of it getting bogged down in battling Hamas in the latter’s home turf. A clear-cut victory where the Hamas is eradicated completely looks unlikely. Meanwhile, the threat of the conflict spreading looms large, with the possibility of a Lebanese front opening up.
These are precarious times. Hence, both sides need to do a reality check. Israel is here to stay. No amount of terrorist violence will make Israelis pack their bags and leave their country. Israel too needs to recognise the Palestinians’ legitimate claims to their homeland. It must move towards a two-state solution. What’s needed is a genuine peace initiative. The cycle of violence must stop.