With five phases of voting over, the crucial Uttar Pradesh elections have crossed the midpoint. The battle is clearly between sitting CM Yogi Adityanath of the BJP with the SP leader Akhilesh Yadav emerging as the challenger. And depends on whom you speak to, both sides seem confident of winning the vote.
The BJP campaign is focusing on the welfare schemes of the Central Government down to the packet of salt with the Prime Minister’s picture. To target the SP campaign, it talks of the law and order during the time when Akhilesh Yadav was the chief minister and is getting some traction on that front though for its part the SP is rattling NCRB figures to show that the situation had actually worsened during Yogi’s rule. The BJP is also going big with the double engine theme claiming that if the BJP comes back to power the state will benefit from the government at the centre as well. But since this was the situation for the last five years, this appeal can be weighed on past experience and found wanting, or not.
The SP campaign is a much more emotional one, for it is running on the anti-incumbency against the Yogi government. In fact, there are those who claim that the mood is not so much pro-Akhilesh as it is anti-Yogi. And the SP is best placed to reap this vote. In addition, Akhilesh Yadav talks about development, from the Lucknow metro, the Noida-Lucknow expressway, the HCL campus in Lucknow, and so on. He is keen to take the party away from the lumpen image of old towards a more progressive SP. And to an extent, he has succeeded in sending the right optics via the campaign.
Then of course there are the old issues of caste vs religion. While the BJP is keen to make this a Hindus Vs the minorities fight, Akhilesh is keen to fight the election on caste lines. He has a rainbow alliance in place to woo the non-Yadav OBC vote (not unlike the BJP’s 2017 alliance). In addition, there is the backlash of the farmers’ bills that is working in the RLD’s favour in Western Uttar Pradesh. This is one reason why the PM played it low-key during the first two phases of the Uttar Pradesh polls. However, for those who think that Hindutva is missing from the BJP campaign should take a closer look at the rhetoric on law and order and security. For when the BJP talks security, it is not without its communal overtones. This is one reason why Akhilesh Yadav refused to wade into the Hijab controversy though Asadduddin Owaisi had no qualms about playing it up.
There is also Mayawati’s Dalit and non Jatav Dalits vote bank. Has Akhilesh been able to woo this away or is this still with Mayawati? Anecdotal evidence suggests that the BSPs vote bank remains intact. Whom will she end up supporting, the gathbandhan or the BJP? Judging by Home Minister Amit Shah’s campaign he seems certain that the BSP will support the BJP. Don’t forget that the party in power has certain persuasive powers that the opposition does not.
But from all accounts, this is one election that is too close to call. Even if the BJP does manage to cross the halfway mark no one is predicting a repeat of the 2017 sweep. Then again, there is no predicting the mind of the heartland voter.