Prominent historian and political scientist Allan Lichtman, known for his near-perfect track record in predicting US presidential elections, has forecasted that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States, defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Lichtman, a professor at American University, developed a predictive system called the “Keys to the White House,” which has correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1984.
Lichtman’s system, created in collaboration with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, is based on 13 “keys.” If six or more of the keys count against the incumbent party, that party is predicted to lose. According to Lichtman, only four keys are working against the Democrats in this election, meaning Harris is poised for victory.
The keys lost by the Democrats include the mandate key (due to the loss of House seats in 2022), the incumbency key (since President Joe Biden is not running), the incumbent charisma key (as Harris has not yet reached the level of a figure like Franklin Roosevelt), and the foreign policy failure key (due to ongoing Middle East crises). However, since six keys are needed to predict a loss, Lichtman believes Harris will prevail.
Lichtman also noted several factors in the Democrats’ favor, including the absence of a recession in the election year, the collapse of third-party campaigns, and the Republicans’ failure to create a scandal against the Democrats. Additionally, Biden’s administration is credited with strong economic growth, successful policy changes, and leading a coalition that helped prevent Russia from advancing in Ukraine.
Kamala Harris, currently serving as Vice President, would become the first woman, first Black, and first Asian American president if elected. At 59, she is competing against former President Donald Trump, who seeks a historic return to the White House, aiming to become the first president in over a century to serve two non-consecutive terms.
The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5. Lichtman, however, has not predicted whether there will be a split between the electoral college and popular vote. He also dismissed the idea of an “October surprise” — a major event that could shift the outcome of the election — as a myth, citing his past accurate predictions despite unexpected developments.
Lichtman characterized Trump as an inward-focused leader who is skeptical of international alliances like NATO, whereas Harris, he said, represents a more traditional approach to foreign policy, working with allies to enhance America’s global standing. According to Lichtman, the US’s global reputation has significantly improved since Trump’s presidency.
