Hamas Eyes New Leader: Who Will Replace Yahya Sinwar?

Cairo – Hamas is preparing to replace Yahya Sinwar as its political leader, with a new candidate likely to be based outside Gaza. His brother, Mohammad Sinwar, is expected to take on a prominent role in directing Hamas’ military efforts within Gaza.

Leadership Struggles Amid Conflict

Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the ongoing Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces recently—marking the second time Hamas has lost its top leader in less than three months. The previous chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July, likely by Israeli forces.

Hamas is now tasked with finding a successor who can manage both political negotiations and the ongoing military efforts against Israel. Leadership discussions will involve Hamas’ major ally, Iran, and the Gulf nation of Qatar, where key candidates are currently residing.

Key Contenders for Leadership

The main candidate to replace Sinwar is Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ deputy and a seasoned negotiator. However, the group must also consider Khaled Meshaal, a former leader with a more distant relationship with Iran, and Mohammad Darwish, who chairs Hamas’ decision-making body, the Shura Council.

These deliberations are further complicated by Hamas’ reliance on Iranian support, with the group needing to maintain strong ties for both financial and military backing. Iranian approval will likely play a significant role in deciding who becomes the new politburo chief.

Dividing Roles for Future Leadership

Experts suggest that Hamas may split Sinwar’s responsibilities between two leaders: one overseeing military operations and the other heading the political office. While Mohammad Sinwar is expected to take on a more prominent role in Gaza’s war efforts, Khalil Al-Hayya will likely lead from outside the region, ensuring international diplomatic relations.

Hamas’ future leadership decisions will also influence the group’s stance in ceasefire negotiations with Israel. According to analysts, Hamas will continue to demand that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza, although some flexibility may be shown in hostage negotiations.

Regional and Global Influences on Leadership

The decision-making process will also factor in the interests of Qatar, which has been involved in multiple ceasefire attempts and has strong ties with Hamas. While Hamas quickly replaces its fallen leaders, the current circumstances—intense conflict and Israeli military pressure—pose unique challenges to its political structure.

As Hamas looks toward the future, the group’s survival and its ability to recover from the war depend heavily on its relationship with key allies like Iran and Qatar, and its ability to choose a new leader capable of managing both military and political challenges.