The Barnier government is in serious danger of collapse. It is a minority government, and both far-right and left-wing opposition parties now have enough support to bring it down.
Le Pen’s Growing Pressure
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is ramping up pressure on Barnier. They are demanding specific changes to the budget. If these demands are not met, RN will join forces with the left to vote against the government. Barnier has already made some concessions. However, Le Pen says they are not enough.
The Key Vote on Monday
A crucial moment is coming on Monday at 3 p.m. local time (1400 GMT). The social security portion of the 2025 budget will go to vote. If Barnier uses special constitutional powers to push the bill through without a vote, the opposition can immediately file a no-confidence motion. The motion would trigger a vote on the government’s future within 48 hours.
If the no-confidence vote passes, Barnier will have to resign, along with his entire government. They will submit their resignation to President Macron.
Possible Outcomes After the Vote
Barnier might opt for a regular vote instead. If the social security bill fails, it will go back to the Senate for further negotiation. If it passes, two more critical budget votes are scheduled for December 4 and December 18. These votes could also jeopardize Barnier’s government.
What Happens if the Government Falls?
If the government collapses, Barnier’s team will serve as a caretaker government. They will handle daily operations while Macron looks for a new prime minister. Finding a replacement could take months.
The new prime minister will need support from multiple parties to survive a confidence vote. One solution might be appointing a government of technocrats with no political agenda.
Impact on the Budget
If the government falls and no budget is passed by December 20, the caretaker government could use constitutional powers to enact it by ordinance. However, this is legally unclear and could spark political chaos.
A more likely move would be for the caretaker government to propose emergency legislation to ensure there is a budget at the start of the year. But this would only extend current spending limits and tax provisions. Barnier’s savings plans would be scrapped.
This means pensions may be reduced and tax thresholds may rise for 17 million people, as they cannot be adjusted for inflation, according to Finance Minister Antoine Armand.
Such temporary legislation could buy time until a new government is in place. However, it would likely face opposition in France’s divided lower house.
Looking Ahead for France
Since no party has a majority in the lower house, any new legislation could quickly face another no-confidence vote.
The only way to resolve the crisis might be for Macron to call new legislative elections. But these elections cannot be held until at least one year after the last elections in July.
Some opposition lawmakers are pushing for Macron’s resignation. They believe it’s the only solution. However, Macron has ruled out stepping down before his term ends in 2027.
Also Read: Political Turmoil in France: Barnier Faces No-Confidence Motion from Far-Right and Left
