As US and NATO forces concluded military withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of presence in the country, a new reality now exists for the country, under the Taliban’s regime.
As fresh challenges arise for Afghanistan’s neighbours to step into the breach, London-based NGO The Democracy Forum hosted a virtual seminar on September 14 — titled ‘Afghanistan: Filling the Void’. This debate was moderated by former BBC Asia Correspondent Humphrey Hawksley. “What can we anticipate from the new regime?” wondered TDF President Lord Bruce in his opening address, given that the Taliban is embarking on a campaign to win hearts and minds and offer a credible alternative to the Ghani administration.
But, with the new cabinet in Kabul dominated by Taliban hardliners and appearing to opt for ‘diplomatic non-engagement’, Lord Bruce believed the international community would struggle to find meaningful leverage.
He also cast doubt over any immediate advantage Afghanistan’s neighbours might hope to gain from US withdrawal, saying that China and Pakistan have “a real problem with the Taliban”, as do Russia and Iran. Pakistan’s predicament, in particular, as a “supplicant of both China and the US, would surely determine its response to the change of regime in Kabul, with possible repercussions including renewed tension with India.”
Addressing the security situation and the Taliban’s ability to govern Afghanistan, Dr Weeda Mehran, a Lecturer at the University of Exeter’s Dept. of Politics, considered key challenges facing the new government.
The expert highlighted challenges like brain drain, and depreciating currency. Moreover, the current caretaker cabinet’s problematic lack of inclusivity, with no Hazaras, Shia or women representatives.
As many as 17 of the 33 cabinet members, including the new minister of the interior, are on UN and FBI terrorist lists, while the Taliban has released thousands of IS, al-Qaeda, TTP and other prisoners, which could cause huge security challenges in Afghanistan if they decide to confront the regime.
UN Consultant Dr Shahriar Tadjbakhsh, a Professor at the Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po, looked at how the region can engage with the Taliban, offering an analysis of the security concerns and interests of regional countries, and what regionalism can do.
She spoke of the September 8 meeting of foreign ministers from Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries to make a joint statement — a meeting tellingly convened by the foreign minister of Pakistan, the country with the most leverage in Afghanistan.