From Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) rule in 2013, the power shifted to the BJP in 2018 as the party won 35 of the 59 seats that went to polls. With this, Tripura became the only state in the northeast where the BJP won a simple majority on its own. Signifying the party’s continuing support in the electorate, the CPI-M came in second place with a vote share of 42.22 per cent, just 1.37 per cent shy of the BJP’s 43.59 per cent votes, but secured only 16 seats. The BJP rode on the anti-incumbency sentiment and was successful in securing the tribal votes by forming an alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). The IPFT won eight seats and a 7.5 per cent vote share. The Indian National Congress (INC) lost all ground in the state in 2018. From ten seats in 2013, it dropped to zero in 2018 while its vote share recorded a freefall from 36.5 per cent in 2013 to just 1.8 per cent in the previous election.
This time around, the opposition is aiming to corner the BJP on its failed promise to fulfil the demand for a Greater Tipraland and its failure in bringing the required development to the state. Tribal politics is challenging the BJP to repeat its 2018 victory with new political players in the fray, while the demands of the public remain the same. Former Congress president and Tripura royal family member Pradyot Debbarma formed Tipra Motha in 2021, a new tribal political party. The party promises to bifurcate Tripura into two new states, rekindling the demands for a Greater Tipraland. The ruling BJP, on the other hand, is facing a challenge on multiple fronts. Three of its district presidents defected to the Janata Dal (United) recently. Entry of Tipra Motha and rekindled demands for Greater Tipraland will likely affect the BJP’s ability to secure tribal votes for a second time. The party is also facing immense anti-incumbency and might not be able to repeat its 2018 victory with or without former or new allies.
Alliance politics in the state this time have stunned analysts and the public alike. The Left, led by the CPI-M and the Congress, have united to defeat the BJP. Additionally, the BJP and IPFT have decided to stick together, in spite of the bruised state of the alliance.