Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are pulling out all the stops for the upcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections. The BJP has already declared 79 candidates, including three central ministers and seven MPs, while the Congress has yet to announce its candidates. A recent survey by a news channel predicts a neck-and-neck fight between the two major parties. The survey suggests that if the elections were held in October, the BJP could win between 108 to 114 seats, while the main opposition Congress could secure 110 to 118 seats. Smaller parties are expected to bag between 3 to 7 seats.
The Congress is projected to lead in the Malwa region with an estimate of 41-45 seats, while the BJP is trailing with a probable 21-24 seats. In Mahakoshal, the BJP appears to be ahead with 18-22 seats, whereas Congress might get 16-20 seats. In the Gwalior-Chambal region, the Congress seems stronger with 26-30 seats, with the BJP likely to get only 6-9 seats. In central India, BJP is expected to perform better with approximately 22 seats, and Congress might obtain 12-14 seats. Similarly, in the Vindhya region, the BJP could get 20-22 seats, and the Congress 6-8 seats. In Bundelkhand, the BJP is seen leading with 15-17 seats and Congress with 9-11 seats.
In the 2018 Assembly elections, the BJP won 109 seats, a loss of 56 seats, while Congress secured 114 seats. The current vote share indicates a very close contest with both parties estimated to get 42% of the votes; the BJP at 42.7% and Congress at 42.9%, while other parties might account for 12.80%.