In worrisome news, a poll amongst 40 medical experts has predicted that the third wave of coronavirus infections is likely to hit India by October, even as the country is still recovering from the devasting second wave, that brought the country’s health infrastructure to total collapse.
The snap poll was conducted by Reuters between 3 and 17 June, in which healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists, and professors from around the world opined that significant pickup in vaccinations will likely provide some cover to a fresh outbreak. Although the pandemic will be better handled than the latest outbreak, it will remain a public health threat for at least another year, as per the poll results.
Of those who ventured a prediction, over 85% of respondents, or 21 of 24, said the next wave will hit by October, including three who forecast it as early as August and 12 in September. The remaining three said between November and February. However, showing light at the end of the tunnel, over 70% of experts, or 24 of 34, said any new outbreak would be better controlled compared with the current on.
The expert panel has expressed concerns over the fact that, so far, India has only fully vaccinated about 5% of its estimated 95 crore eligible population, leaving crores vulnerable to infections and deaths.
Dr Archana Dhawan Bajaj, Director, Nurture IVF, speaking with The Daily Guardian described the results of Reuters’s poll as a logical assumption as there are a large number of cases and the third wave is spreading fast in Europe, especially the UK, and a similar pattern follows after three months in the rest of the world.
“The peak will be with different presentation and it is likely to target the younger generation more as we have seen that chronologically the age group seems to be reducing with each wave so if we have to look at a logical derivation perhaps then children will be more severely hit,” she added.
Agreeing with the report that the third wave may hit India in October, Dr Chinnadurai R., Lead Consultant, Department of Critical Care, Aster RV Hospital, Bengaluru, told The Daily Guardian that the next wave will be as bad as the second one. “I think the third wave won’t be that bad. We have seen in this second wave a negligible amount of people had Covid-19 among those vaccinated,” he said.
Dr Gyan Bharti, Pulmonologist, Columbia Asia Hospital, Ghaziabad, had a word of advice. “To avoid the third wave, it’s recommended that we all should follow Covid appropriate behaviour and vaccination protocol.”
Meanwhile, addressing concerns regarding children being more vulnerable in case the third wave of infections hits the country, Niti Ayog Member Dr V.K. Paul said a survey jointly conducted by WHO and AIIMS New Delhi shows seropositivity in people below and above 18 years of age is “almost equal”.
“The information shows that children were infected but it was very mild. Only isolated cases of infection may occur in children (during the third wave of Covid-19),” Dr Paul said.