The Lok Sabha elections seem to have reached an interesting turning point with the Opposition daring to dream of an unexpected setback for the BJP. While one could argue that the gap between the BJP and the Congress is way too wide for such optimism there are some factors to consider
The first is the I.N.D.I.A bloc campaign. Not only have various parties successfully put aside their ego to contest on one platform, they have also stuck to the same script. It is the Congress that is leading the narrative with its talk about a caste survey and caste based reservations. The focus has been on jobs and the economy. More than that the opposition has very smartly taken the BJP’s slogan of Ab ki baar, 400 paar and converted it as a threat to the Constitution. The reason why the BJP wants to cross 400, says I.N.D.I.A bloc leaders, is because that will give them the mandate to over-write and amend the Constitution. Here they have hit an emotional chord with the Dalits, who see the Constitution drafted by Baba Saheb Ambedkar as a symbolic source of pride for their community. Besides, for the poor, backward and downtrodden the Constitution is a rights based document which they hold onto as a shield against powerful and entitled governments at the centre. The backlash and scepticism has not gone unnoticed by the BJP with the PM himself addressing the issue during his interviews to the mainstream media. Both the PM and other BJP leaders have repeated more than once that they will not be changing the constitution, if voted back to power.
If you recall, in 2014 it was the issue of corruption that worked against the UPA government and brought Modi and his team to power. While the Congress has not been successful in making any of its allegations of personal corruption against the Prime Minister stick (recall the disastrous campaign of Chowkidar Chor Hai that failed to take off); the BJP seems to have scored a self goal of sorts by admitting tainted leaders facing ED and CBI probes into the party. The clean chit that followed once they were admitted led to the opposition referring to the BJP as a washing machine that washes away corruption by bleaching the stains instead of fighting the corrupt. That narrative too is sticking specially with the middle class. The arrest of a sitting chief minister (two actually) has seen divided optics. But if anyone can compete with Narendra Modi in playing the victim card and grabbing headlines, it is Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal.
The Aam Admi Party leader also kept the BJP busy when he came up with his theory that when voting for the BJP the public would be voting for Amit Shah and not Modi since the latter would retire after a year, when he hits age 75 . Again this had Amit Shah himself denying the obvious and stating that Modi would remain PM for the entire term and there was no such succession plan in place.
Elections are about issues, they are also about personalities and narratives. The personality of the Prime Minister still remains intact as the tallest leader from both camps. The Opposition knows it cannot compete with the BJP on the `face’ which is why it has smartly desisted from promoting any single leader as its PM aspirant versus Modi. Instead it has taken on the BJP campaign on narrative building.
Although the BJP tried to distract the opposition by bringing in the religious divide, talking about Muslims as infiltrators and claiming that the Congress would be favouring the minority community by depriving others including the OBCs. The Opposition has been quick to counter this narrative. As Sachin Pilot told NewsX it’s not that there are no OBCs amongst the Muslims either. Sam Pitroda’s comments about the inheritance tax did give the opposition some uncomfortable moments, but the narrative soon moved on. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has emerged as the Congress party’s star campaigner taking the BJP on with an immediate counter to whatever salvo they have fired. Such as when the BJP accused the Congress of planning to enter people’s homes and steal their mangalsutras, she reminded the public that, far from stealing others, it was her mother who had sacrificed her mangalsutra for the nation
The election has crossed its halfway mark. While the BJP may still retain its pole position, the opposition has fought a good fight. And as they say, no election is over till the counting is done.