Which way will the Gujarat election go? Given that this is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home court where he is the main issue and the chief campaigner, very few expect the BJP to lose the state, despite a 27-year anti-incumbency. Add to that a low profile Congress campaign and a high voltage assault by the Aam Admi Party that will first eat into the opposition vote bank before it makes a dent into the BJP. Why is Rahul Gandhi staying away from the campaign and not trying to cement the Congress track record of winning 80 plus seats in the last round, and more importantly stopping the BJP at double digits, not letting it cross the 99 mark? According to senior journalist and author, Rasheed Kidwai, this could be because the Congress does not want to make it into a Rahul vs Modi battle and divert from real issues. Others feel that Rahul doesn’t want another loss added to his name, not at a time when he is doing some serious rebranding, thanks to the Bharat Jodo yatra. For the first time in as many years, he has finally been able to shake off the Pappu rag. Why would he want to risk that once again if the Congress tally goes down in Gujarat? However, the party has launched a door-to-door campaign and in terms of workers and cadres, it still registers a stronger presence than Kejriwal’s AAP where the leader is better known than his party on ground presence. Also, now that Delhi›s MCD polls have been announced, Kejriwal will find his loyalties divided. If he loses the MCD polls, then his stronghold in the capital is breached, but if he fails to make a dent in Gujarat, then his national ambitions will be dented.
However. one has to hand it to Kejriwal for fighting a consistent and focused campaign in Gujarat. He has been working on it for a while now ever since February 2021 when AAP won 27 seats in the 120-seat Surat municipality, and Congress won nothing.
Since then, Kejriwal has been dropping into Gujarat ever so often and has also deputed one of his most able election strategists Raghav Chaddha as the state election in-charge. Chaddha, if you remember, played a key role in the AAP›s Punjab win as well. The Punjab CM as well as other AAP leaders have been touring the state.
As for the state of Himachal, that is one state where the anti-incumbency against the BJP government is much more vocal on the ground. And here, it is the Congress that remains (both in optics and on ground) as the main opposition party, despite a low-profile campaign there as well. However, if you go by anecdotal evidence, then there is a strong grouse over the state BJP government over lack of jobs and employment. At the local level, both the BJP and the Congress do not have a tall leader on offer. Whoever becomes the CM will be a proxy of the Central leadership. And while the Congress does not have any positive narrative of its own to offer, it is hoping that the BJP will default on its own promises vs delivery balance sheet and sway the voters towards the Congress. In other words, while the Congress may not be able to win Himachal on its own steam, it is hopeful that the BJP may lose the state. That is also politics though not the best way to play the game, but its election time and anything goes.
PRIYA SAHGAL