With polling in Himachal Pradesh over, the focus is now on Gujarat where there is a tri-cornered fight between the Congress, BJP and the Aam Admi Party. Given that the BJP has a 27-year anti-incumbency against it, the ruling party still seems poised for a comeback. So in a way the fight will be for the Number Two slot, between the Aam Admi Party and the Congress. Until the MCD polls in Delhi were announced, the Aam Admi Party was focusing on Gujarat, with Arvind Kejriwal leading the assault from the front. Pollsters even reported that his face had more recall than that of the current Gujarat CM—but then the BJP is not basing its campaign on Bhupendra Patel but on PM Modi. This is Modi’s home state and he has made his Prime Ministership all about Gujarati Asmita; so it is unlikely that the state would snub him. It did, however, send him a strong message during the last round of polls in 2017 when the BJP failed to make it to double digits, reprimanding him for demonetisation and an unwieldy GST. The PM and Home Minister Amit Shah have been focusing on the state, nudging investors and industrialists to set up shop there as well as sending the entire cabinet to campaign and spread the word about the government’s achievements.
Compare this to the Congress campaign which had an edge during the last polls winning 77 seats. Although Rahul Gandhi himself has been missing from the campaign, Congress leaders have been deployed in the state, especially at the booth level to go door to door and canvas. Leaders have been deployed from the neighbouring state of Rajasthan to camp in the state and use their rapport to further the Congress cause. This did lead to some turf wars and the exit of Hardik Patel and before him Alpesh Thakor, but the Congress High Command did not let that derail their campaign. The warring Rajasthan duo have also been deployed in Gujarat with Ashok Gehlot sending the much needed resources (in addition to funding by the Chattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel), while Sachin Pilot is emerging as a star campaigner along with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Newly appointed Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge is also monitoring the party’s campaign in Gujarat. Meanwhile, we are told that Rahul Gandhi is going to be addressing a few rallies in the state. So far Rahul had kept out of the Gujarat campaign which, either by default or by strategy, ensured that this did not become a RaGa vs Modi personality contest.
As far as Kejriwal is concerned, he will now have to divide his time between Delhi and Gujarat and this could work to the Congress’ advantage, for he would have first made a dent in their vote bank that happened during the Surat Municipal polls last year.
While no one is expecting the BJP to lose Prime Minister Modi’s home state, there is a keen interest in the margin of victory; and the score that the Congress and the AAP notch up. For this would be the first test of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo exercise and as far as Kejriwal is concerned, it would be a telling commentary on his national ambitions.
PRIYA SAHGAL