• HOME»
  • Statistically Speaking»
  • As EC holds meeting ahead of elections in five states, a look at past turnouts and future implications

As EC holds meeting ahead of elections in five states, a look at past turnouts and future implications

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Friday held a significant meeting regarding the upcoming legislative assembly elections in five states. During this meeting, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar stated that the Commission would be taking significant steps to provide assistance to vulnerable individuals, such as persons with disabilities (PWDs), senior citizens (aged 80 and […]

Advertisement
As EC holds meeting ahead of elections in five states, a look at past turnouts and future implications

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Friday held a significant meeting regarding the upcoming legislative assembly elections in five states. During this meeting, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar stated that the Commission would be taking significant steps to provide assistance to vulnerable individuals, such as persons with disabilities (PWDs), senior citizens (aged 80 and above), and particularly disadvantaged communities (such as Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes) through special provisions like home voting.

The Election Commission further emphasised its responsibility for conducting impartial elections in the states and stressed the importance of demonstrating impartiality during the conduct of elections. Members of the EC also advised state observers present in the meeting to “play a crucial role” in ensuring fair elections in the states, including monitoring social media and its impact on voters.

Rules related to Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), election expenses, and legal aspects were emphasised as the EC directed that these be followed diligently in the upcoming elections. A total of 1,180 observers participated in the meeting held yesterday evening. Officers from various civil services like IAS, IPS, IRS, and others have been deployed as general, police, and expenditure observers across the country.

The Election Commission highlighted the significance of bringing all voters to the polling booths before the election process begins in the five states and Election Commissioner Arun Goyal urged the observers to perform their duties “with dedication and integrity” to ensure the rule of law in the states. Observers “are the eyes and ears” of the Election Commission and should promptly address any complaints that arise, Goyal added.

A final list of voters for the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections was published by the ECI on Wednesday. The election body’s data revealed that the state now comprises 5.6 crore eligible voters in the state, with just over 22 lakh first-time voters. Of the total electorate in the state, 2.7 crore are women voters.

Madhya Pradesh is one of five states that will head to the polling booths in later this year. The other states include Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Rajasthan. The ECI has released the voter numbers from each state except for Telangana—a delegation of the polling body is currently visiting to assess election preparedness in the state. Mizoram has added about 8.38 lakh first-time voters, while Chattisgarh and Rajasthan have added 1.97 crore and 5.52 crore new voters respectively.

SIX-FOLD INCREASE IN VOTERS
Data from earlier this year revealed that India has witnessed a six-fold spike in voters since the year 1951. As of 1 January this year, the country’s electorate stood at over 94.50 crore and is only growing. These numbers are particularly significant as at least five states go to polls at the end of this year while a number of Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are scheduled for next year. However, this data also found that about one-third of the electorate about 30 crore voters—which comprised mainly of Indians in urban areas, as well as youth and migrants chose not to participate in voting in the past.

With a voter turnout of 67.1% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, India ranked 74th among the 162 countries that the ECI analysed to compare polling data with. Notably, India’s voter base exceeds the combined numbers of the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Pakistan, and Japan. However, the country’s vote share lagged behind the turnouts recorded in Bangladesh (80%), Brazil (79.2%) and Sri Lanka (75%), but surpassed the turnouts in Russia (51%), Pakistan (50%) and Nepal (61%).

The Election Commission has therefore gone the extra mile this year, with an aim to bring this year’s voter turnout to a minimum of 75 percent. To do so, the Commission has decided to have a larger number of women and youth man polling stations and have provided the option of home-voting for the elderly and persons with disabilities. In addition, there have been arrangements made for last-mile voters with remote EVMs, etc.

RISE IN SENIOR VOTERS, DECLINE AMONG YOUTH
From 21.63 crore electors in 1962, the count increased to 91.05 crore in 2019. The total number of voters on 1 January this year was 94,50,25,694 (94.5 crore). The voter turnout has increased significantly in recent years and crossed the 65% mark in the last two general elections.

Ahead of the Assembly elections in Karnataka in May this year, the ECI found that voters aged 80 years and above in the state increased by 34.76 percent since 2018, the highest among all age groups in the state. Data from the state Chief Electoral Office (CEO) noted that the number of senior voters aged 80 and above increased from 9,02,226 in 2018 to 12,15,920 in 2023. According to the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) Chief Commissioner and District Election Officer, the state added 1.35 lakh new voters this year.

The overall electors in the state increased from 5.06 crore in 2018 to 5.3 crore. Electors in the bracket of 70-79 went up by 5.95 lakh, or 25.97 percent, while the 60-69 age group saw an increase of 7.92 lakh, or 17.3 percent. Two categories of age groups saw a decline in electors percentage. For the 20-29 years, the elector percentage declined by 10.47 percent from 1,10,93,005 to 99,30,534.

MORE WOMEN VOTERS IN MADHYA PRADESH
As for Madhya Pradesh, the state saw a rise in women voters in 29 out of the state’s 230 Assembly seats, with 25 of these seats either reserved for tribal communities or possessing significant tribal populations. This marks a notable increase from less than 10 months ago when there were only 18 seats where women voters outnumbered men.

The BJP’s state unit boss, VD Sharma, praised Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s leadership and hailed a 35 percent quota for direct recruitment of women for government jobs. “‘Beti bachao, beti padhao’ is the resolution of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ‘Ladli behna’ is the resolution of our Chief Minister. Only yesterday ₹1,250 was transferred to accounts of our sisters,” he said on Wednesday.

Among the 29 seats where women voters outnumber men today, the Congress emerged victorious in 20 during the 2018 election, while the BJP secured eight. The remaining seat was won by an independent candidate. Interestingly, the turnout of ST women voters was 77.11 percent in 2018, greater than the overall women turnout.

IMPLICATIONS
One of several big questions that the release of this data from Madhya Pradesh poses is whether increased women voters will persuade parties to field more women candidates in these 29 seats. The Women’s Reservation Bill which was recently approved by President Droupadi Murmu as a landmark piece of legislation—guarantees 33 per cent reservation for women, will not come into effect by the time the state heads to the polling booth, which means parties might not feel “pressured” into fielding more female candidates on their tickets. As of now, Madhya Pradesh has 21 women MLAs 11 from the BJP, 10 from the Congress and a lone Bahujan Samaj Party leader. This is less than 10 percent of the House strength. Once the law is enforced, there will be 76 women lawmakers.

Tags:

Advertisement