At a time when the BJP is going global, the Congress seems to be going local. With the Central leadership still to get its act together, the focus is clearly on the state leadership that is winning elections and keeping up the party’s morale. It is fast becoming a party of regional fiefdoms held together by a weak Centre that depends upon, rather than leads, the local leadership.
Post Karnataka—actually post the Himachal win—this seems to be a key takeaway for the Congress party. And given the fact that the BJP has such a impactful leader at the Centre in the form of the Prime Minister, this may not be such a bad strategy for the Congress.
As for the BJP the reverse applies. There is so much dependence on the persona of the Prime Minister that local leaders cannot hold their own. We saw that in Himachal, in Karnataka and also in Gujarat where the state swung the BJP’s way on the sole plank of the Prime Minister’s own connect with Gujarat. But more and more as anti-incumbency sets in for the Modi government, the Prime Minister is unable to swing states the BJP way with the same aplomb he could do in the first five years of his prime ministership. West Bengal comes to mind, as does Assam which was won by the BJP more because of Himanta Biswa Sarma than the PM’s presence. While the Congress has been quick to grasp the lessons from the state elections, the BJP is a bit slow to the draw. The Congress is content to let Kamal Nath handle Madhya Pradesh, Buphesh Baghel oversee the Chhattisgarh campaign and Ashok Gehlot take charge of Rajasthan. Even a Sachin Pilot is not allowed to come in Gehlot’s way even though he is said to be the preferred choice of the Gandhi siblings.
The BJP, however, is hampered by the one thing which is also its biggest plus point—the persona of the Prime Minister. It cannot give Shivraj Singh Chouhan or Vasundhara Raje a free hand, lest it leads to a strong second rung leadership within the BJP. The campaign when it will be fought will be more on the PM’s own image and deliverables than state issues.
The Congress, however, has learnt that by engaging with the BJP on this narrative, they will deflect the election towards central issues and the PM’s own track record. Instead, the party is better off making it a Chouhan vs Kamal Nath battle rather than a Kamal Nath vs Modi one.
Again, this is a strategy that will see the Congress through 2023. But what happens in 2024 when the battle is for the Centre, and the man commanding the BJP’s pitch is the Prime Minister himself?