There is intense speculation in political circles on what action would the Enforcement Directorate take following the decision of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal to skip the second summons, and instead proceed for his annual retreat for meditation, this time to Hoshiarpur. There are also conjectures over what will happen if the ED decides to arrest the Aam Aadmi Party supremo in the alleged Liquor scam, and would he before that finalize the names of the three Rajya Sabha nominees from Delhi since the term of the three current ones, expires next month. Kejriwal’s departure for his Meditation (Vipaasna) is being viewed in official circles as an act of open defiance, and it is more or less clear that the ED would seek legal advice before making its next move, which could be even as drastic as arresting the Delhi Chief Minister. Many of Kejriwal’s rivals have been wondering how and why the ED has given him such a long rope thereby suggesting whether there had been some sort of an understanding that had been arrived at. This is unbelievable and the Delhi CM seems to be prepared to take the ED head on, given his description of the summons as “illegal’’ and not consistent with the rule of law. The point is that the legality of the entire issue can be argued in courts subsequently but if the ED proceeds and arrests him, the consequences of the action may be very grave for the AAP. Firstly, there is no clear line of succession in the party with Manish Sisodia, whom everyone considered as the established number two, already in jail. There is no other leader, whose acceptance may be across the board and it shall be a Herculean task for the Chief Minister, to announce his interim successor in such a tearing hurry. There has been a buzz regarding the possibility of Kejriwal nominating his wife, in the same manner in which Lalu Prasad Yadav, many years ago, had asked Rabri Devi to step into his shoes. However, if Mrs Kejriwal indeed is selected, it shall send confusing signals down the line. Many of senior leaders in the party may see this move as a reflection of their leader’s non confidence in their abilities, something which would not be desirable at this crucial juncture, with the Lok Sabha elections round the corner. It is an open secret that after Sisodia’s arrest, the AAP supremo has been entrusting two young leaders, Raghav Chadha, now a Rajya Sabha MP from Punjab and Atishi Singh, with a lot of additional responsibilities. Both of them are very gifted and enjoy the absolute trust of their leader. But the question is whether they are equally acceptable to the rest of the party as well. Gopal Rai, a senior leader who has been helping in running the party is a very ambitious person and rightly so; he has discharged all duties and responsibilities given to him. He has a good control over the organization and many, view him in the current situation, as someone who can be a stop gap arrangement. But it is unlikely that he maybe preferred over Mrs Kejriwal, if such an eventuality of Kejriwal being arrested arises. In the three Assembly elections, the AAP has faced, the selection of candidates and the management of the polls was entrusted by the AAP leadership to Sanjay Singh, now a Rajya Sabha MP from Delhi, who is also in jail and Ashish Talwar, a close aide of the Chief Minister. Talwar had distanced himself from the party after being ignored by the leadership, though he maintains cordial relationship with the leadership, and Sanjay Singh has his limitations while being behind bars. These two were the trouble shooters, who could have managed the party and allowed Kejriwal to have his say without any fear or doubts in case of arrest. The Delhi CM has changed his style of politics over the years and is now busy positioning himself as the possible choice for the leadership of an anti-BJP option. While he has been aggressively acting against both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the charge by his rivals is that he has silently been also seeking to reach out to some functionaries of the RSS, for being considered as a non-BJP alternative. This may sound far-fetched but the Congress has often described the AAP as the `B’ team of the Sangh. There is also speculation whether Kejriwal would declare the names of his three Rajya Sabha nominees before his possible arrest, or would prefer to do so later. The terms of Sanjay Singh, ND Gupta, the treasurer and Sushil Gupta end next month and the AAP can get any three leaders of its choice to the upper House, given its strength given its strength in the Assembly. It is more or less certain that Sanjay Singh would be repeated and there may be compelling reasons to do so also. Many insiders of AAP feel that the likelihood of ND Gupta or his son being chosen are also high though simultaneously, many of the CM’s opponents have alleged in the past that he could be inclined to give the seats to the highest bidder. This is an accusation without any substance, and everyone knows that Kejriwal is a political individual, who on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls, can oblige any top leader from anywhere. The new year could also bring in some changes in the AAP and its functioning.
