Even as the battle heats up in the five poll-bound states which will vote this month end onwards, an opinion poll conducted by India News and Jan-Ki-Baat in West Bengal and Assam has given the edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in both the states. The survey has given BJP 150-162 seats in West Bengal and 68-78 seats in Assam, indicating a clear majority. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Congress, which are in pitched battle against the saffron party, have got 118 to 134 and 48 to 58 seats in the respective states.
Pradeep Bhandari, CEO and founder of Jan-Ki-Baat, who led the survey with over 150 researchers with one of the largest sample sizes as opposed to other surveys, also had a long questionnaire that throws up massive data that facilitates a deeper and wider public perception and pulse of the voter.
As far as West Bengal is concerned, the saffron party, which had galvanized ground support by mobilizing resources in the last few years, appears to have paid off if one goes by this survey. Interestingly, in the high octane Nandigram constituency, where Mamta Banerjee is contesting against Suvendu Adhikari, BJP’s new found poster boy, the voters seem to have sided with the latter, according to survey reports. Nandigram is the most curiously followed political battle this election season which is also the most critical election to Didi, making it a must win and do-or-die battle for the TMC supremo.
As far as vote share is concerned, the survey has revealed that the fortunes will tilt in BJP’s favour in just a matter of decimal percentages. The BJP is expected to get 44.80% as against TMC which is pegged at 44.10%.
A margin of 0.7% difference will leave the two parties with a gain and loss of 30 to 40 seats which in fact seals the fate. Another aspect that is on expected lines is the vote share of the Congress-led alliance in Bengal which is 10.5% and when it comes to seats the grand old party scores anywhere between 10 to 14 seats.
The survey also reveals there will be close fight in around 50 constituencies where the margin of victory will be in the range of a few hundred to a few thousands. When it came to issues, most of the respondents said that elections were mainly on issues concerning corruption, violence, development among others in the said order.
When it comes to Assam, the pre-poll survey suggests that the BJP will retain the state despite the unpleasant CAA, NRC and flood issues. In the battle for Assam, the survey states Congress will clock more voter percentage at 42.5 as against BJP’s 40.5%, but when it comes to seats, BJP will get a clear mandate with 68 to 78 seats, with Congress anywhere between 48 to 58 seats. The logic being BJP will gain in many constituencies with wafer thin margins, while the Congress will consolidate in constituencies where the fight is more or less one sided.
The regional parties are expected to pocket 17% vote share, but when it comes to seats they will score a zilch.