People in Rwanda are going to the polls for elections in which President Paul Kagame is widely expected to extend his rule of the central African country. This marks the fourth presidential ballot since the genocide 30 years ago, which resulted in the deaths of more than 800,000 people, predominantly Tutsis. Kagame, who led the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) rebel group to defeat Hutu extremist forces and end the genocide, was elected president by parliament in 2000 following the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu.
Kagame’s Dominance in Previous Elections
Kagame has consistently secured more than 90% of the vote in the three previous elections held in 2003, 2010, and 2017. Running on the RPF ticket, he is seeking a fourth term after a constitutional amendment in 2015 extended presidential term limits. Kagame is credited with transforming Rwanda from a nation divided by ethnic conflict into a united country and a regional business hub. However, critics accuse his administration of censorship and curtailing human rights in the country of 13 million people, more than 9 million of whom are eligible to vote in Monday’s ballot.
The Opponents and Disqualified Candidates
In this election, Kagame faces the same opponents as in 2017: Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent candidate. Rwanda’s national electoral commission disqualified six others, including vocal Kagame critics Victoire Ingabire, Diane Rwigara, and Bernard Ntaganda, for various reasons.
Voting Process and Public Sentiment
Long lines of voters formed as early as 5 a.m. at the Remera Catholic primary school polling station in the capital, Kigali, one of five polling stations visited by The Guardian. Voting was taking place peacefully at all the sites, with observers from the African Union present. “Kagame has ruled us well and I am going to vote for him again,” said Frank Munyaneza, a driver. “He has brought development and we have security under his rule.”
Campaign Priorities and Opposition Platforms
Kagame’s campaign priorities include security, stability, unity, and economic development. “We chose to rebuild ourselves and our country, which was destroyed by bad politics and irresponsible leaders,” he said at a rally in the northern Gakenke district on Thursday. “As for you, you have rebuilt yourselves, you have built your skills, and you have competent leaders at all levels. Therefore, you must do everything possible to ensure that Rwanda continues its path towards sustainable progress.”
Habineza, a former RPF member, is advocating for changes to tax and land policies and for the modernization of agriculture. Mpayimana, a senior expert in the Ministry of National Unity and Civic Engagement and a former journalist, is pushing to downsize parliament, increase agricultural productivity, and improve education and student welfare.
Analyst Perspectives and Future Outlook
In the last election, Habineza and Mpayimana each received less than 1% of the votes. Analysts say they continue to lack sufficient name recognition, financial resources, and organizational ability to significantly challenge Kagame. The RPF has been the ruling party since 1994, with its members occupying 75% of the seats in parliament.
David Kiwuwa, an associate professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham, remarked, “On the whole, Rwanda is a dominant party system, with RPF occupying a supersized political space and as such in the foreseeable future has no challenger.” Rachel Nicholson, Rwanda researcher at Amnesty International, said the election could be an “opportune time for political leadership to choose to recommit to human rights” and investigate enforced disappearances, killings, and other human rights cases to ensure that victims get justice. “Regardless of whether leadership changes or not, it’s a moment of change,” she said. “It’s a moment that leaders can choose if they want to.”
Rwandans are also voting on Monday for members of the lower house of parliament. The results of the elections are expected this week.
