India now strong trade partner of Russia, expected to remain so in 2023: S&P Global Market Intelligence
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India has emerged as a strong trading partner of Russia and is anticipated to remain so in 2023, according to a new S&P Global Market Intelligence report published on Tuesday. This is despite significant bilateral trade volatility between Russia and nearly all other markets as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Big Picture The 2023 Outlook Report Series includes the recently released “Global Trade Outlook” report.
“The trade value of total imports from Russia has increased in recent months, primarily due to rising oil, gas, and coal prices, as well as spikes in Russian imports by several countries. This group is led by India, which noted a greater than 100 percent year-over-year increase in Russian import trade values each month after the Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2022,” said Agnieszka Maciejewska, Economics Manager at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
S&P Global has a division called S&P Global Market Intelligence. In the global capital, commodity, and automotive industries, S&P Global is the leading source of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions.
The analysis emphasised the anticipated changes in trade as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as the promising picture for containerized trade in 2023 despite a meagre 0.7% year-over-year (y/y) growth in 2022, which was driven by the predicted slowdown in the second half.
Additionally, it emphasised the effects of the new IMO greenhouse gas reduction policies that will go into effect in 2023.
The following are some of the report’s other major highlights:
Global Trade Trends: India is predicted to experience an increase in trade in 2023 as a result of its huge rise in Russian imports. Its anticipated trade value will rise by 3.5% y/y in exports and 1.3% y/y in imports, while its projected trade volume will rise by 3.8% y/y and 7.3% y/y, respectively.
Mainland In 2023, China is anticipated to be Russia’s top importer, followed by Turkey, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
However, the picture is now far more uncertain due to China’s present economic slump. Western commercial partners will become less significant in the volume of commerce with Russia. In the event that Russia restricts gas shipments to Europe in the winter of 2022–2023, this tendency will be even more obvious.
Containerized trade outlook: Following a 0.7% y/y rise in 2022, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite forecasts expect containerized trade to grow by 3.2% y/y in 2023.
Since more than 50% of mainland China’s exports are in containers, the country’s economic difficulties should have a significant long-term impact on this type of cargo. This situation is not anticipated to change anytime soon.
IMO carbon reduction targets: The marine sector, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, will have to adhere to the new short-term greenhouse gas reduction standards put in place by the IMO as of January 1, 2023.
Due to this, maritime logistics costs are anticipated to rise on average more quickly, and there will probably be a slight slowdown in global trade and economic growth.