The test of voters on the Bagru Assembly seat changes in every election, with once a Congress candidate winning and the next time it is a BJP candidate who rides the victory chariot. This trend has been continuing for the last 15 years. The changes in power in the state are also reflected in the results of this seat. The party whose candidate wins from here forms the government in the state. The current MLA from Bagru is Congress’s Ganga Devi Verma. Looking at the trend of election results, people are saying that this time the result will go against Congress, but Ganga Devi is claiming victory based on her work. BJP’s Kailash Verma is confident of victory based on the votes of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and the popularity of Narendra Modi. The Bagru seat is reserved for the Scheduled Caste (SC) category. Bagru is well known throughout India for its unique block printing.
The analysis of voters in the area suggests that the political game between Congress and BJP may be disrupted this time by the candidate of Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), Tarachand Raiger. In the last 2018 elections, the party’s candidate Dinesh Rai Bhati had disrupted the game for BJP by securing at least 15,796 votes. At that time, Ganga Devi of Congress won with 5,343 votes. She was behind for 19 rounds out of 22 in the counting. In the last 3 rounds of counting, her fate turned around so much that she successfully claimed her right to victory over the taunts of Vijayashree. Ganga Devi has won twice on this seat. In 2008, she defeated BJP’s Rakhshpal Kuldeep by 3,517 votes. After that, in 2013, Congress fielded Dr. Prahlad Raghuvanshi as a candidate. Dr Raghuvanshi was badly defeated by BJP’s Kailash Verma. He lost by a massive margin of 46,356 votes. In 2018, Congress again fielded Ganga Devi. The party reaped the benefits as Ganga Devi succeeded in becoming a legislator again with 5,343 votes. This time, both parties have staked their claims on old rivals.
More urban voters compared to the rural ones:
The Bagru Assembly constituency has a mix of both urban and rural areas. The mood of this seat is both urban and rural. This makes it necessary for various parties to formulate a strong strategy in the game of votes. The thinking of rural and urban voters is different, and they cannot be handled with the same stick. Jaipur Greater Municipal Corporation has 21 wards under this seat. The votes of these wards always tilt the balance of victory and defeat. Almost all party workers are working harder in these wards at this time. These are the voters who openly say nothing, but their criteria are neither based on caste nor can they be managed at the social level.
RLP is the biggest hurdle:
People in the region say that the candidate of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), Tarachand Raiger, is not standing to win this seat but has entered the electoral arena to disrupt the game between Congress and BJP. The RLP is considered a party that works in the interest of Jat voters. Therefore, Tarachand will definitely seek votes from Jat voters coming under the Other Backward Class (OBC) category, and there are a significant number of OBCs in this seat.
Local issues of this seat:
In this electoral area, there is a shortage of basic facilities such as sewage, cleanliness, and water. In the first elections after delimitation in 2008, all the candidates raised these issues. Since then, these issues have been raised in every election. Votes are sought based on these issues, but a permanent solution has not been found yet. MLA Ganga Devi had even protested against her own government for the supply of water from Bisalpur. As a result, water from Bisalpur has reached some parts of Bagru, but a large part is still waiting for water. Thousands of people, 30 km away from Jaipur in Bagru, are still forced to drink fluoride-contaminated water.
Caste equation dominates the region:
The reserved seat for Scheduled Castes (SC) in Bagru is crucial in terms of caste equations. Votes in this category are divided between Congress and BJP. The SC is a significant portion of this seat. There is also the dominance of Scheduled Tribes (ST) on the SC-reserved seat. The number of Brahmin and Jat voters is also quite good. BJP has a strong grip on Brahmins and Vaishyas. Muslim voters are around 6 per cent here, and Congress is depending on them as their traditional vote. A large part of the capital is included in Bagru, hence, an entire Ring Road comes under this Assembly constituency. The problems of colonies and villages along the Ring Road are similar. Last time, urban voters supported Ganga Devi. This time, it will be known which candidate these urban voters favour on December 3. This time, about 56,000 new voters have been added to the voter list. These new voters have the potential to influence the election results. Among them, a large number belong to the youth category, whose thinking is beyond caste and creed.