The Middle East is a region where geopolitical dynamics can shift unexpectedly. While the Israel-Palestine conflict is often seen as emblematic of regional tensions, its duration of about a century is relatively short compared to other global conflicts. This article will explore the evolving alliances within the Middle East, the realignment of key regional and global powers, and potential pathways toward peace.
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has held significant sway over global affairs. The collapse of the Soviet Union did not diminish the perception of international relations as zero-sum games. The “War on Terror,” failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the rise of groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS reinforced this view. Meanwhile, China emerged as a secondary global power in the 1990s, altering the balance of international influence. This article will examine China’s growing role in reshaping the Middle East’s geopolitics, the shift toward a multipolar world, and how the U.S. can adapt to these changes.
Post-Cold War Dynamics: U.S. Dominance and Shifting Alliances
Following the Cold War, the U.S. became the primary power in the Middle East, shaping the region’s political landscape with policies rooted in Cold War thinking. The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, were part of U.S. efforts to curb Iran’s influence. However, as regional dynamics became more complex, the U.S.’s reliance on military intervention and bloc-based politics showed diminishing returns.
The aftermath of 9/11 shifted U.S. focus to the “War on Terror,” resulting in interventions that, while aimed at combating terrorism, deepened regional divides. This prompted a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy as rising global and regional powers began challenging its dominance.
China’s Strategic Approach to the Middle East
China’s approach to the Middle East contrasts with the U.S., focusing on economic relationships rather than military intervention. Beijing has built strong trade ties with both U.S. allies like Israel and adversaries such as Iran. By mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China has played a pivotal role in regional diplomacy. Unlike the U.S., which often emphasizes confrontation, China seeks stability to secure energy supplies and expand its global economic influence through diplomacy and soft power. By strengthening its ties with Iran, China has helped Tehran circumvent Western sanctions while ensuring continued access to essential oil supplies.
Russia’s Role in the Region
Though economically weaker than China, Russia has positioned itself as a major player in the Middle East. Moscow’s military involvement in Syria demonstrated its readiness to counter Western influence and assert its interests. Through security partnerships, Russia has secured a key role in the region, further contributing to the shift toward multipolarity.
The Israel-Palestine Conflict: A Persistent Barrier
The Israel-Palestine conflict remains a core issue in Middle Eastern geopolitics, contributing to regional instability. Despite multiple peace attempts, including the Oslo Accords, a lasting resolution remains elusive. Events like the October 7 attacks highlight the urgency of addressing deep-seated grievances. For the U.S., resolving this conflict is crucial for maintaining influence in the region.
Achieving progress could:
Strengthen relationships with Arab nations by demonstrating a commitment to Palestinian justice.
Limit Iran’s leverage by reducing its ability to exploit the conflict.
Enhance global perceptions of U.S. foreign policy by promoting fairness and peace.
Impact of the Arab Spring and Shifting Regional Dynamics
The Arab Spring significantly affected Palestinian dynamics, with Egypt’s General Al-Sisi designating Hamas as a terrorist organization while Qatar continued to support it as a resistance movement. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, backed the Palestinian Authority, further fragmenting the Palestinian cause. However, Egypt played a crucial role in mediating between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in 2017.
North African nations are also facing significant challenges. Libya is mired in internal conflict, effectively divided between two governments. Algeria, though buoyed by oil wealth, struggles with protests and the decline in oil prices. Morocco is undergoing gradual reforms but faces major challenges like unemployment, social disparities, and regional imbalances. Tunisia, while making progress in its political transition, is threatened by economic difficulties, particularly the lack of job opportunities.
The Maghreb region, while generally performing slightly better than the Mashrek, remains highly fragmented and the least integrated region globally. In contrast, non-Arab countries like Iran and Turkey have benefitted from the region’s turmoil, with Iran increasing its regional influence and Turkey’s role solidified after the success of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, although tensions emerged following the military ousting of President Morsi.
The Shifting Global Landscape: A Multipolar Middle East
The geopolitical shift in the Middle East is increasingly shaped by a multipolar environment, with global powers like the U.S., China, and Russia vying for influence. Regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel are adapting to these changing dynamics. New alliances, such as the I2U2 (Israel, UAE, and India), highlight the shifting geopolitical realities. This new multipolarity presents both opportunities for cooperation and increased potential for conflict.
Trump’s Return and Its Potential Impact on Middle Eastern Dynamics
Should Donald Trump returning to the presidency, his approach is likely to mirror his previous term, with bold and unconventional strategies. Policies like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, and expanding the Abraham Accords are expected to be revisited.
Reworking U.S. Alliances:
Strengthening Relations with Israel: Trump is likely to continue prioritizing Israel’s interests, expanding security cooperation and facilitating further normalization agreements with Arab nations.
Expanding the Abraham Accords: Trump may push for more Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel, potentially sidelining Palestinian demands.
Renewing Gulf Partnerships: Expect continued focus on arms sales, counterterrorism, and energy cooperation with Gulf states, though this could strain relationships with Qatar and Turkey.
Russia’s Involvement and a Softer Approach to Iran
The crisis in Ukraine has spurred Russia to deepen its involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, adopting both geostrategic confrontation and limited counterterrorism cooperation. A more balanced approach to Iran, combining diplomatic engagement with pressure, could stabilize the region and address key security concerns.
U.S.-China Rivalry and Its Impact
Trump’s stance on China could spill over into the Middle East, particularly in the realms of technology and energy. As Saudi Arabia strengthens ties with China, this could complicate U.S.-Saudi relations, adding another layer to the region’s already complex dynamics.
Conclusion: Towards a Stable Middle East
The Middle East is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation, shifting toward multipolarity. Global powers must recalibrate their strategies to maintain influence while fostering stability. A comprehensive strategy involving diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation, and security partnerships will be essential for achieving long-term peace. As the U.S. navigates these challenges, balancing firmness with flexibility in dealing with Iran and other regional actors will be key to shaping a stable and prosperous future for the region.
Prof. (Dr.) Nishakant Ojha- Renowned Expert in Foreign Affairs, International Counter-Terrorism, Specializing in West Asia and the Middle East.
