As per the recently released Union Bank of India report, the RBI might transfer around Rs 1000 billion to the government in FY 2025.
According to its report, RBI is most likely to maintain, a healthy dividend payout in the fiscal year 2025. Thus, representing a slight increase from Rs 874 billion, which was transferred previous year.
The report further said that government has already budgeted the dividend for RBI, PSU banks & financial institutions worth INR 1020bn, which is a slight decrease from INR 1044bn in FY2024.
But as per Union bank of India, a positive suprise is likely awaiting just like last year, when the initial budget estimate for overall dividend was just INR 480bn.
“”The government has budgeted the FY25 dividend for RBI and PSU banks & financial institutions at INR 1020bn, vis-a-vis INR 1044bn in FY24. In our view, a positive surprise is likely, similar to last year when initial budget estimate for overall dividend was only INR 480bn” said Union bank’s report.
Meanwhile, the report analyst is also looking forward to a potential positive surprise. Just like last year, when an initial budget for dividends was reported low at INR 480 billion.
However, the balance sheets of RBI reports that approximately 70 percent consist of foreign currency assets, while 20 percent consist of domestic government bonds.
Additionally, interest earnings from these securities are expected to be in the range of Rs 1.5-1.7 trillion.
The decline in provisions too, has contributed to the boost of RBI’s dividend. For example, there is an increase in the contingency fund provision, which has strengthened RBI’s balance sheet.
But for now, in the near term, the impact of RBI’s dividend announcement is currently limited at best on the market, especially during the ongoing election.
Thus, resulting in a delay in government spending.
Nevertheless, analysts continue to uphold a positive outlook attributed to the presence of favorable demand-supply dynamics.