The ruling party had been confident of victory on all 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan. But the after polls statement of union minster has created a state of uncertainty and has made all the leaders skip a beat. Shah somehow, doubts the party’s ability to secure 25 seats this time, citing challenges in just one or two constituencies. While the Home Minister may focus on a few seats, Congress remains confident of winning 7 to 8 seats and expects competition in 5 to 6 seats. This marks an increase from the anticipated 10 to 12 contested seats. Experts predict that Congress will compete in 5 to 6 seats. The final seat tally for BJP and Congress in Rajasthan will be revealed on June 4, keeping the state elections intriguing until then.
On one hand, after this statement Shah has stirred the pot within BJP, while the Congress seems to gotten a silver lining. Now Shah is making a strategy for campaigning in other states using the Home Minister’s statement as the basis. Following the Home Minister’s statement, the looming question is: who will bear the brunt if BJP fails to secure a hat-trick? Several implications arise from this. It’s evident that Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma will be the primary target if BJP falls short, given his leadership role. Additionally, State Principal Secretary Sudhanshu Pant may also face scrutiny if BJP’s streak is broken, as he has been accused of assuming the role of a de facto Chief Minister, causing discomfort among ministers and MLAs. However, Rajasthan BJP’s political landscape has been tumultuous since the assembly elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decisions in the Lok Sabha elections have faced criticism, particularly sidelining former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and former state president Satish Poonia in favor of less experienced leaders.
The significant issue arose from the rebellion of BJP members on two seats, indicating a perceived mishandling by the central leadership. The high command’s dismissal of Rahul Kaswan and Prahlad Gunjal’s concerns proved detrimental. Kaswan’s actions in Churu led to polarized Jat politics in neighboring constituencies, while Gunjal’s efforts in Kota caused discomfort for Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Both leaders are closely associated with former CM Raje. Had Raje been consulted, she might have been able to persuade Rahul and Gunjal. Consequently, the outcomes in Churu and Kota remain uncertain until the election results are revealed.
Here, in Barmer, Ravindra Bhati, who was once a BJP leader, created a triangular contest. There is talk of pushing BJP’s Minister of State Kailash Chaudhary to the third position. Along with Barmer, BJP could have managed Churu and Kota seats, but the weak leadership of the state could not do anything. Not only did the central leadership take wrong decisions, but the state leadership also proved to be weak. When Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma did not get the support of party leaders, State President CP Joshi got confused on his seat. In such a situation, if BJP loses the seat as per Congress’s claim, it will be a huge loss for BJP.