Has the death knell of the I.N.D.I Alliance been sounded? Not that the alliance was in ship-shape even otherwise, but then on Wednesday, Mamata Banerjee shoved it towards a possible painful end by declaring that she would go it alone in West Bengal in the Lok Sabha elections. She thus publicly contradicted Congress’ claim that it was discussing seat sharing with the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Alliance woes were aggravated by reports that Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann of the AAP too had decided to go it alone in Punjab, minus an alliance with the Congress. A while ago, there were media reports that Mamata Banerjee was more than ready to have an alliance with the Congress, possibly because she was worried about an erosion in her Muslim vote-bank.
Anti-incumbency against the TMC, Bengal’s ruling party, is a fact, because of allegations of misrule and corruption. Apparently, the alleged misrule has started affecting the TMC’s Muslim voters as well. Along with this was the drift of the Muslim community in general towards the Congress, post the party’s thumping win over the BJP in Karnataka, where the majority of Muslims, many of them by shifting from the JDS, voted for the Congress to ensure the BJP’s defeat.
In July, when the I.N.D.I.A bloc was formed, there was an air of optimism surrounding it.
But then the optimism of July 2023 turned into gloom in December 2023, once the Assembly election results of the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh were announced and Congress lost all three. Congress’ importance in the I.N.D.I.A grouping fell faster than Delhi’s falling mercury in winter. The question now is: has the possible fracture in Mamata Banerjee’s Muslim vote bank got repaired post the Congress’ loss in the Assembly elections in the three all-important states? Is she more confident of retaining her vote-bank, now that the Congress may no longer be seen as a potential winner?
Has the shift of her Muslim vote-bank towards the Congress been stalled? Is that the reason why she finally decided to go it alone? If this is the case, the fight in Bengal will likely turn out to be bipolar in nature—a straight BJP vs TMC fight, with voters on either side not willing to let their votes get divided by voting for the I.N.D.I.A partners, Congress and the Left, who are in alliance in the state. This increases the possibility of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, or whatever remains of it, to flop in the state completely.
The fundamental point is, for the regional parties it does not matter if they are in an alliance with the Congress or not in their respective states. What matters to them is protecting their own turf and to reach the Lok Sabha with as many seats as possible. At best, the Congress can contribute a handful of votes to their kitty, because it is weak in their states.
The regional parties’ future does not depend on the I.N.D.I.A bloc’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections. It is the Congress’ future trajectory that depends on the I.N.D.I.A bloc. Hence, in all the states where the regional parties are strong, the Congress is at best a supplicant, and not a party that can decide on how many seats it can fight. If the one-state parties want seats in other states from where they can contest, it is because they want to increase their vote share and be regarded as national parties.
Mamata Banerjee’s TMC has lost its national party status, so she wants to get enough votes elsewhere to regain that status. However, she can live with her party being a regional entity for some more time, but cannot afford to lose her home turf to the BJP. This factor will decide her next move on the I.N.D.I.A grouping.
The situation is similar with the AAP, which is on a strong turf in Punjab. If it does not need Congress support to win any seats in the state, why will it share seats with the Congress? It will win those seats on its own. It is only in Delhi that both AAP and Congress may need each other’s votes to fight the BJP. But an alliance in Delhi does not necessarily mean an automatic vote transfer between the two parties, because elections are more about chemistry than arithmetic.
Hence, it is in Congress’ interest to have the I.N.D.I Alliance, especially in swing and low-margin seats, where, faced with the BJP, a few thousand votes from its allies can make a difference between winning and losing. Given that in states where the allies are strong, the Congress will never be handed as many seats as it wants, what will eventually matter for the party is the direct fight it will have with the BJP in around 200-odd seats. Therefore, it would make sense for the party to concentrate on these seats. Whether or not Rahul Gandhi’s latest yatra has been designed with this on mind, remains to be seen.
As for the future of the I.N.D.I.A grouping, right now the alliance seems to be all about optics—to give the appearance of a united front mighty enough to take on the BJP. But it is uncertain if it will actually reach a stage where seat sharing is finalized by the parties..
Joyeeta Basu