Three other big states due to go to polls before the Lok Sabha 2024 elections are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and
Telangana.
In Rajasthan, the incumbent Congress’ internal contradictions are proving difficult for the party, clearly giving away several weaknesses as Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and party leader Sachin Pilot have had public standoffs on several occasions. The Congress’ inability to put its house in order might help the BJP, but the latter is not in a comfortable place itself with lack of clarity on the state leadership face for the next elections.
Rajasthan is crucial for both the assembly and the Lok Sabha, and campaigning is already under way. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is criss-crossing the state under the ‘Mehangayi Rahat Camp’, an attack on the central government, whereas BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, have already visited the state multiple times in recent months. Rajasthan has 25 Lok Sabha seats, all of which were with the BJP in 2014, even as it retained 24 in 2019. The party has an edge over the incumbent Congress with its strong retention in the last two Lok Sabha elections, but the state polls might bring winds of change if the Congress is unable to fight anti-incumbency and set its house in order.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is having a face-off with Congress’ tallest leader in the state and former CM Kamal Nath. Nath is conducting several prayers and religious events across the state to burnish the Congress party and his own credentials as pro-Hindu.
The strategy is aimed at countering the BJP’s anti-Hindu tag of the Congress. As of now, the Mahakal Lok Corridor debacle is proving a challenging point for the BJP government which will face the ballot in November 2023 for the 230-member assembly. The state holds 29 Lok Sabha seats. BJP won 27 and 28 in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, respectively.
Both states together comprise 54 Lok Sabha seats, 52 of which are with the BJP currently. If the party wants to retain a large number of these seats, it has to ensure a good result in the Assembly elections as well. Moreover, the Congress’ revival post the Karnataka victory and the BJP’s own anti-incumbency in MP are two things the saffron party has to deal with before it goes to the Lok Sabha battle.