In this age of misinformation and disinformation, when the course of an election can be impacted by fakery—for instance, the Opposition claim that the BJP would change the Constitution and remove reservation if it got 400-plus seats, which had some impact on the party’s Dalit votes—it’s important to take note of narrative building. It is in this context that the latest attempt at narrative building on an unstable government has to be seen. Even though it has been less than four days that the new government has been sworn in, but a narrative is actively being sought to be built that it would not last beyond a couple of years, or maybe even a year or less because of the internal pulls and pressures of a coalition. Much of this talk is coming from the Opposition and its ecosystem, which is expected, because they would hope for a weak government that will not be able to fulfil either its election promises or complete its tenure. It is towards this purpose that social media is being bombarded with rumours about discord among NDA allies over ministerial berths and portfolios, about BJP MPs in Bengal planning to defect to Trinamool Congress and the like. This is all part of a mind game, and an attempt to create confusion. It is not yet known how the ruling alliance will try to handle this tidal wave of rumours against it, but to observers in general the vibes coming from the first four days of the new government have been positive, a manifestation of which was the display of the camaraderie during Chandrababu Naidu’s swearing in as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday. It all appeared to be genuine bonhomie, with the BJP’s top brass present there, starting with the Prime Minister, who seems to share great chemistry with both CM Naidu and Deputy CM Pawan Kalyan. Earlier, even Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s public engagements with the PM were cordial and full of positive vibes.
Even though it has been less than four days that the new government has been sworn in, a narrative is actively being sought to be built that it would not last beyond a couple of years, or maybe even a year or less because of the internal pulls and pressures of a coalition.
Looking beyond the vibes, it does not make political sense for either Naidu or Kumar to leave the NDA. Even if they join hands with the I.N.D.I Alliance, that alliance will not have the numbers to come to power at the Centre. However, staying with the NDA ensures a steady flow of funds for their states, as well as accruing the benefits of what Prime Minister Modi calls a “double engine sarkar (government)”. Naidu, who turned a “small town” Hyderabad into a global tech hub when he was CM of undivided Andhra Pradesh, wants to do something similar with Amravati, the capital of the truncated state, or perhaps even surpass it. Why would he make “destabilization” his calling card as long as he gets what he wants? He may not get special status for his state—no state will—but there will be enough funds for him to ensure that his dream to make Andhra Pradesh shine comes true. As for Nitish Kumar, he needs stability as CM of Bihar, which he wouldn’t get if goes back to the Opposition alliance. Tejashwi Yadav has been making it amply clear that he is the claimant to the CM’s chair and is in no mood to humour Nitish Kumar.
Even otherwise, after 1984, it’s only in recent years that India has had a full-majority government. Everyone ran a coalition government, from P.V. Narsimha Rao to Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, and did good work as well. Why are we assuming that PM Modi will not be willing to give his allies the required space? He is single-mindedly focused on governance delivery to the common Indian, apart from making India the third largest economy in the world, as well as laying the foundation for making India a developed nation by 2047. Why would the allies be an impediment to this target? Good work on the ground helps them as well.
An indicator of what the government will be doing in the next five years came from the portfolio distribution. Not a single minister was changed in the core ministries, which shows that the PM believes that the work he and his ministers are doing is making a difference on the ground. PM Modi has been focused about the delivery of reforms in his two terms, in spite of severe disruptions caused by Covid and the Russia-Ukraine war. That work is expected to gather pace, which the Prime Minister has already indicated. Already the Cabinet has approved the delivery of 3 crore pucca houses in rural areas. Rs 20,000 crore for the 17th instalment of the Kisan Samman Nidhi has been released. Many schemes are in the pipeline. In fact, reports are that the ministries have all been working on the first 100 days’ agenda of the new government. The allies have not had any problems about having PM Modi as their leader. So all this talk about unstable government may prove to be just that—talk and unfounded rumours.
