There is an old joke about Sharad Pawar—apparently, he was asked once by Narasimha Rao what does two plus two equal to, and pat came the reply: it depends, are you buying or selling. That sums up Sharad Pawar, because with him there are no straight answers. One never knows which side he is on, maybe because the Maratha leader is quite adept at playing both sides.
So, if the rumours are true, then Pawar is believed to be playing both sides. He has “settled” one faction within the NDA, while he and his daughter Supriya Sule continue to side with the Opposition camp. There is some credence to this for those who know Praful Patel, he is nothing if not loyal. There is no way Praful would have walked away from Pawar without his okay. Political analysts cite ED pressure on Ajit Pawar, Patel and the breakaway faction. This could be the trigger, for the BJP has been pretty open about the way ED is helping direct political forces, either towards it, or away from it.
Also, if you recall Ajit Pawar’s last breakaway attempt which had culminated in a midnight swearing-in as deputy chief minister as part of a Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP government. Later, Sharad Pawar told the media that this was his ploy to prevent the BJP to put the state under Governor’s rule in order to buy himself some time to stitch together the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi with the Congress and Udhav Thackeray. Plus, take Supriya Sule’s press conference where she stated that Ajit Pawar continues to be her brother and that she can separate the political from the personal. Taken at face value, that’s a pretty mature comment from someone whose father has just been stabbed in the back by his own nephew and protege. Or, should we dig deeper and think again?
Political analysts also say this is a great opportunity for Supriya Sule to establish herself as Sharad Pawar’s heir apparent and consolidate her hold over the party. The problem with this argument is that Supriya has already had enough opportunity to do the same, for she was always the NCP chief’s favourite heir apparent. This did lead to some heartburn in the Ajit Pawar camp, which could be one reason why Surpiya focused on the Mahila wing and parliamentary politics, leaving state politics to her cousin. However, if she had wanted to play a larger role within the organisation, would Sharad Pawar have stopped her? And until recently the NCP was a one man show. (I would like to add that I still believe Sharad Pawar is running the show and the entire drama has his blessings and backing). In fact, to quote Praful back to him: this coup is indeed the gurudakshina he claims it to be.
Why did the BJP play along? Well, one reason is the optics. To have the same Praful Patel who broke bread with the Opposition leaders in Pune and clicked many Instagram moments to now address a press conference stating that not just him but the entire NCP is with the NDA, makes great visuals for the Modi-Shah duo. It also leaves a huge NCP-shaped hole in the Opposition. We are told that others will follow suit, that Bihar, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are the next targets for the BJP. A cabinet reshuffle is also tantalisingly on the cards, even though it is at the fag end of this government. Plus having Ajit Pawar on board gives the BJP inroads into Western Maharashtra and Pawar’s turf. It’s a win-win for the BJP.
What does Sharad Pawar get out of it? Here the maths becomes very confusing and kind of like a geometrical theorem. Let’s just say he’s drawn lines on all sides of the page, and will connect the dots when the time is right.