It is hard to know, as of this writing what will exactly happen with and to the new government in Niger. It is one that saw the economic and security situation so desperate in part that it overthrew and replaced the French-backed government led by Mohamed Bazoum, now “jailed”. ECOWAS, a western supported group of nearby western African states is threatening by war to oust the new government. Why so?
The stated reason is that if the West and its African allies were to be passive to a duly elected government being toppled by a coup, they would be supporting a dangerous trend in Africa towards authoritarianism. After all, in 2022, Mali also experienced a domestic military take-over. So-called democrats in Europe, including globalists and some of their African followers, are getting especially edgy that more African governments will get toppled soon, and/or go (more) authoritarian. And then, also align more with Russia and China, already with a large presence on the continent. However, not to be forgotten is the worry in Paris, though less so in Brussels or Washington that these military-led governments are not too keen on their relations with the West. In fact, the Mali government kicked out the French military there and the new Niger government has asked France to leave its territories as well. It is said that both governments are not satisfied in their opinion, with the arrogant and not so effective way French troops had been trying to make headway against ISIS-like terrorists, strong in the region. And irritated with France being overbearing telling those military led African countries what to do, overall. There may be certainly more important reasons. In fact, according to le Monde, a major newspaper, 20% of France’s uranium supply comes from that one African country, Niger. And much of France’s electricity is generated by its nuclear plants, many dependent on that uranium. A “lights out” invaded Niger could be in retaliation, literally lights out for France and other parts of Europe. Further supporting such an energy debacle, there is another large worry. A major pipeline is being completed in Niger that will transport large volumes of energy from Nigeria to Europe. This represents substantial relief to Europe that has suffered from being cut off from affordable Russian supplies by either Moscow or Washington-led actions. According to EnergyVoice, this project will be completed by the third quarter of 2023 -meaning very soon.
But the overthrow of the previous government has added more risk that the agreements on energy to uranium to security and more agreed to by the previous government, may not be implemented by the current military leadership. And, if there is war, European investors have to worry about how this new government might react to them and their countries that have benefited by the billions, if not trillions of dollars or euros made from such African resources. Already, there is economic tit-for-tat between the West and the Niger government.
These events in Mali, Niger and beyond are making many more Africans wonder whether they need a new “contract” especially with the West to give them greater benefits from the stripping and moving of their resources. This is especially so given the horrible situation in the Sahel with desertification and global climate change problems that are causing millions of Africans to be displaced and exploited by human traffickers. If there was a time that Africa needed a “Square” or “New Deal” from the West, it is surely now.
There are risks here as ECOWAS, logistically, seems to be preparing for real war. Firstly, if such resistance is substantial by the Niger military authorities to invasion, collateral damage to innocent civilians could be substantial. After all, other African military-run governments such as. friends of the Niger regime may feel a certain existential risk if the Niger one is overthrown by ECOWAS. These Niger friends, therefore, may want to jump in as well into any possible conflict between ECOWAS and Niger
There are also a lot of Niger civilians protesting western presence and machinations. In fact, large numbers as reported and filmed by Al-Jazeera news and other media show protesters in front of French facilities asking for the French soldiers to depart and some asking them to be replaced by the Russian military group, Wagner, which has been in talks with the Niger military. What if these French soldiers numbering but 1,500 were to find themselves unable to depart their compound or follow orders by their commanders and Paris without causing a bloodbath. Are they just going to mow down what appears to be many civilians far from happy with the French and West, overall? Will Niger citizens see ECOWAS interventions as a kind of unnecessary violence and proxy of an Uncle Tom, francais type -Uncle Tom, being a derogatory remark for Blacks who willingly and even happily subordinate themselves to excessive “white man” led rule. ECOWAS, may indeed find there are few friendly civilians in Niger as it tries to march or bomb in.
India does not need another global destabilizing war breaking out in West Africa with West – Russian divisions. It does not need to see one of its important economic partners that is not far from it, being drawn down economically and security wise as it prepares for the most important G20 meeting it will soon host. Not to forget, if the pipeline going through Niger gets jeopardized, energy prices will come under more pressure, as well as the increased risk of global war or at least detrimental effects of it to the African continent. Rather, India which is evermore investing and cooperating with Africa should encourage the belligerent parties to make peace. Large elements of Nigeria’s moderate Muslims have the same view. India should join hands with them and other peace-oriented influencers. And if the French, or worse NATO enters the fray even by strongly supporting its ECOWAS proxy, all bets may be off for regional, if not global peace.
Indeed, as the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has indicated by his peace and inclusiveness messages, he likely believes India, Africa and the rest of the global South need the North to help build up Africa not crash what is left of such suffering people of the world. Ones in 2023 who should not be thought of as, “The Wretched of the Earth”, a book in which Frantz Fanon wrote eloquently about these maligned as he observed Algeria bombed to pieces by France for Algeria wanting its rightful independence. Surely 60 plus years later, post colonialism Africa deserves better including a new economic deal from the West than more “bullets” through the head and “plundering”.
Peter Dash, an educator, writes extensively on geopolitics. He was a past Associate at the AfricanResearch Program at Harvard University and was a volunteer with African NGOS.
