Can the Opposition form a bloc without the Congress? NCP chief Sharad Pawar is said to be exploring this option, with or without Prashant Kishor’s blessings. It’s not too difficult to see the rationale behind such an exercise for the Congress party’s track record in taking on the BJP electorally has not been very good. Take a look at the recently concluded five Assembly seats—the one state where it was a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress, the latter lost even though the BJP was facing an anti-incumbency in Assam. And in states where the BJP faced a non-Congress party, it lost — West Bengal. It’s not that the BJP cannot be defeated but an electoral battle led by Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Uddhav Thackeray, Navin Patnaik, or even Nitish Kumar has a better success rate than a lone Congress campaign.
And as many analysts have pointed out that once the election is a national level one, then the fight naturally becomes one of Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi. And we all know how that one ends. Hence it makes sense to form a non-Congress, non-BJP front with two or three strong faces to take on the BJP and keep the Congress as a post-election option. Since Narendra Modi still retains his edge over any other leader pan-India, it makes sense not to put one face against him as that face will always fall short. However, the coalition has to be clear about its message. It is not enough to criticise the BJP but the Opposition also needs to be clear as to what alternative it is offering the voter.
Moreover, it will not be that easy to take the Congress out of the equation for there are around 195 seats where the Congress is pitted directly against the BJP; and this is the Achilles’ heel in any fight against the saffron party. As Sanjay Jha, former Congress spokesman, told me, the Congress needs to win at least 100 of these seats. If it doesn’t then the BJP’s number will be too huge for the regional (Opposition) parties to measure up to. Jha has a solution pointing out that all Congress needs to do is to focus on the low-hanging fruit instead of wasting its energies on Uttar Pradesh, a state which Rahul Gandhi has been focusing his energies on ever since he debuted in 2004. “In the last elections, the BJP won 175 seats of the 195 where Cong and BJP in a direct fight,” says Jha.
However, to be fair to Rahul Gandhi, he will probably be quite happy supporting any coalition that will take on the BJP without insisting on leading it. After all, if he is reluctant to lead his own party, then why would he insist on leading a coalition? One way to check this would be to insist that a non-Congress leader taking over as Chairperson of the UPA. Currently, Sonia Gandhi holds this post, but given the fact that she wants to step back from active politics, perhaps the post should go to another more active leader. Such as Mamata Banerjee? It is also clear that the fiery leader from West Bengal harbours national ambitions. And to be fair, from all the opposition leaders, her track record in taking on the BJP cannot be questioned.
While the general elections are still three years away, the focus is on the semi-finals which will be fought in Uttar Pradesh early next year and then Gujarat. In the first, the onus lies on another regional leader, Akhilesh Yadav to try and stop the BJP juggernaut while Gujarat has usually been a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress, but of late, the Aam Admi Party has expressed an interest in the state. With Kejriwal himself making routine appearances in Modi’s ‘karma bhoomi’, this will be an interesting battle to watch. And the results of both UP and Gujarat will bring with them markers for the 2024 general elections.
