Let me first clearly state that I am a Sinophile. Chinese culture and the Chinese people overcoming so much totalitarian related tragedy, historically and especially during the Mao Tse Tung latter years of that regime deserves our appreciation. Also, China has had considerable success in nearly eliminating deep poverty in a very short time.
I have lectured at a Chinese university and research consistent to my classroom observations shows that the younger generations, there are more open than ever in their own value system of expressing diverse opinions, though clearly some kinds have been put-off limit by Beijing”s “Great Wall” on the Internet, for example. Contrastingly, it is a Narendra Modi-led government always cognizant of its status as the largest democracy, not only in the Global South, but impressively in the entire world.This approach was well demonstrated at the G20 great consensus building processes and outcomes of a comprehensive declaration.
China, thus might take note of such an alternative Indian model without anyone having to lecture Beijing.That is not to have to take on some of the more questionable ideas of globalists and certain unworkable elements of western-style democracy that India has not for the most part. And likewise, to avoid the overall supplanting of western values over a possible evolving democracy in the People’s Republic, having important Chinese civilizational characteristics. So would it not have been positive if China at this last G20 summit had expressed such a preceding view of reforms, including of the UN and shown more engagement at this very top summit – and by its top leader? All if which would have given more global confidence in it that it sorely needs.
Despite any kind words on China, it is important not to extend overly, the often cliche sound bites before criticism that some diplomats sweating away make to protect their European country’s or EU zone’s serious trade positions with China. India’s foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, on the other hand, seems to have “no sweat’ to hold India’s own position and national security interests, first, despite whatever hypothetical more billions the country might make by sweet-talking, instead to its big “invasive” neighbour. Others in Parliament across the floor and elsewhere might differ and might wish to be more of a supplicant to Beijing. So be it, as the electorate decides loyalty to “mother” India without “full stops” is preferable.
While Europe such as President Macron”s France or Chancellor Scholtz’s Germany are sensitive to Europe exporting almost 200 billion dollars of goods to China, the EU has a staggering trade deficit with Beijing approaching 400 billion euros (EU stats). On the numbers between India and China, the trade deficit is more manageable at 87 billion dollars in Beijing’s favor, yet getting New Delhi’s timely attention. (Economic Political Weekly, September, 2023) With a “friend” like China with such gains over so many, even on the Belt and Road Initiative, combined with current geopolitics, some more rational, self-preservation thinking is needed in the West and even in the South?
However, China has been a.clear engine to global growth. It is not a zero sum game, overall of China down and India up. A faltering China sinks many “ships” that carry the “goods” India needs to sell and create jobs. Global growth as opposed to wealth has had a serious China component. According to the IMF, every time China”s real growth decreases by one percent, the world’s growth goes down by 0.3 percent. China’s serious worsening economic situation and focus on risky territorial overreach are certainly unhelpful, not only to itself, but the world’s economy.
The G20 may also have highlighted a negative signal that Beijing does not feel strong enough to have the highest status it wants within that body as to assert its neo-hegemonic preferred position. It is one it may feel it can have more of in BRICS and other regional cooperation organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, any approach to undermine the G20 will downgrade Beijing’s global status and contrast badly to the outreaching approach of the Narendra Modi government.
Simply speaking, G20 was an outstanding success for the Modi-led government and most Indians are over the moon with their country – pardon the pun – inclusive of the remarkable lunar landing of an Indian space vehicle. All this with or near the G20 summit was indeed celebratory moments for the whole country and New Delhi. Given this coincidental timing of Beijing’s attempts to lower the G20’s status by not sending their head of state, looks also too much like an attempt to put cold water on India’s G20 high success. If it was, it was a failed attempt that in fact raised India’s status and as well, the US and EU ones. I cannot for the world understand China’s efforts, consciously or not to diminish its position globally. Does this have anything at all to do with the total disappearance over many weeks of the former Chinese foreign minister?
There are some not so nice features and bad trend lines these days that Beijing really needs to get better hold of. If not, I am predicting that instead of the Communist Party (CCP) controlled China becoming the number one superpower as so many Washington “dystopians” worry about, a different reality may be at play. China may stagnate at some time, including with its high youth unemployment, or worse and even fall in key global economic rankings, essentially placing it well below the EU and even ASEAN, and certainly the United States in years ahead.
That is bad for the world, instead of a China progressing to a more peaceful, dynamic model. In the meantime, the world will now look to India more, especially underlined by the outstanding G20 performance by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team.
Peter Dash writes extensively on. geopolitics. He has worked in China as a foreign expert. He was a past Associate at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs, overseen by various scholars at times who became US national security advisors and other security advisors to US presidents.
