Never perhaps the period between the declaration of the result of the US Presidential election and the winning candidate assuming office has seen so much turmoil, as it is witnessing now. It appears that efforts are on to pry open the Pandora’s Box so that Donald Trump, once he assumes office on 20 January 2025 as the 47th President of the United States is consumed by chaos, and is left fire-fighting, with his presidency failing even before it starts.
The Russia-Ukraine front in particular is a matter of concern. Instead of advice to exercise restraint, the Biden administration appears to be encouraging Volodymyr Zelenskyy to escalate the conflict to a level where it may even spill over to become a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato.
Saturday’s 9/11 style attack on residential towers in the Russian city of Kazan, where the recent BRICS summit took place, is a case in point. It is not known exactly what military purpose was served through this drone attack, except for making a statement.
If the attack was meant to inflict some serious damage and eventually make Putin negotiate peace from a place of weakness, it did not work. The same goes to the permission given to the use of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to target Russia. It is an American missile that needs significant American involvement to operate, thus making it a case of a direct attack on Russia by a Nato power, which is unheard of, making things extremely risky. It was precisely to avoid such a possibility of a direct confrontation between Nato and Russia that Biden did not provide such missiles to Zelenskyy ever since war broke on 24 February 2022.
So why provide such missiles now when Biden’s policies have resulted in a wipeout of the Democratic party in the elections?
If weakening Putin is not a good enough reason, then the only reason is to escalate the war, which Trump will be left to handle. It is just that Putin has kept his cool and has restricted himself to rhetoric, but will he keep quiet if Ukraine manages to inflict any major damage? The time is for peace. This is one of the issues which has brought Trump victory. And that should be the only aim for all countries.
But in their zeal to topple Putin, an improbability, the outgoing administration, as well as Trump haters in the Republican fold are still for supplying military aid to Ukraine. The total aid that the US and its Nato allies have provided to Ukraine till date is a humungous $260 billion, with the US alone providing $102 billion. It is this that the Americans voted against, so Biden has lost the mandate to continue to provide Ukraine with military aid, but he acts undeterred. And now even Mike Johnson, speaker of the House Of Representatives, is insisting that the military aid to Ukraine must continue. Given that Johnson is a Republican, it demonstrates that there still are some no-Trumpers in the Republican party, even though the scale of Trump’s victory has made most Republicans opposed to him fall in line.
Going against Trump, the Biden administration has taken another step that may have far-reaching consequences. It has lifted the $10 million bounty on the head of Syria’s new ruler Mohammed Al-Jolani, thus effectively clearing him of all charges of terrorism, including against American soldiers, many of whom he killed in Iraq. There is fear that this will severely damage counter terrorism operations in the Middle East, with ripple effects felt in the rest of the world. Israel is unhappy that a man who basically belongs to the ISIS and Al Qaeda, and is its immediate neighbour has been legitimised by the Biden administration. And this even though Trump was clear that he did not want the bounty removed.
The other problem area is Iran, which the Biden administration has allowed to reach a stage of 60% purity of uranium, with 90% required to weaponise that country’s nuclear program. There is actual fear that Iran may do something reckless inside the next few weeks, like testing a nuclear bomb, before Trump comes to power, even though the window is very short. But analysts are keeping their fingers crossed.
Hence, the next few weeks are critical, for any small miscalculation by any party, may leave the world barrelling down an uncertain path. The second coming of Trump is causing major ripples, but the ripples should not be allowed to turn into a tsunami, for that is not good for the world.
