This year is going to see a series of Assembly polls, the most crucial being the ones in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam. Barring Assam and Kerala, the Congress really has little role except that of a supporting partner, leaving the Trinamool Congress and the DMK to take on the BJP juggernaut.
The most interesting and high-voltage battle of course is going to be West Bengal, the groundwork for which began much earlier with Mamata Banerjee taking on the BJP at every step. Given the way Amit Shah operates, he had begun working for these Assembly elections the very minute the last round of polls got over. Bengal has been very much on both his itinerary and radar ever since. In fact, after the Northeast, J&K and Uttar Pradesh, this is going to be the BJP’s next turn-around project. After this the focus will shift south. Work has already begun in Telangana and Tamil Nadu will be next.
It is this kind of grassroots planning and strategy that the Congress lacks. Given that the Congress is much more of a pan-India party than the BJP even today, it would have a much easier task, building on its cadre and strength. But of course, first it has to build on its leadership.
As things stand today, the fight in West Bengal is definitely between the TMC and the BJP, with the Congress-Left alliance reduced to the role of spoilers. The reason why Mamata will not go in for an alliance with them is that she does not want to unite the anti-TMC vote. That, and the fact that the genesis of her politics has been stridently anti-Left and also that she sees no future in doing business with a Rahul Gandhi-led Congress.
Assam is the one state where the Congress can lead the fight against the BJP. The CAA backlash would help its cause but Tarun Gogoi’s recent demise has left it bereft of a charismatic leader. Especially when the other side has Himanta Biswa Sarma leading the charge. However, this is the only poll-going state where it can play a meaningful role but so far there seems to be little move in that direction.
Will the Covid-19 pandemic, the long lockdown and the economy have a role in any of the coming state elections? We saw some change in the rhetoric in Bihar when jobs and unemployment took precedence over all other talk. Will the same be repeated in the next set of state elections? One is not sure, as it is early days yet. But looking at the highly polarised campaign being run in West Bengal, one is doubtful.
The year will begin with a focus on vaccines and the economy (with the Budget session round the corner) but mid-course, once the state polls begin, it’s going to be back to the politics of old.
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INDIA’S TRYST WITH DESTINY CONTINUES 75 YEARS AFTER INDEPENDENCE A
A grateful Nation should recall the services of millions of freedom fighters and leaders who participated in movements of various kinds, some peaceful and some not so peaceful. They had only one objective that was to see their country free.
The time has once again come to renew the pledges made by our freedom fighters as the country celebrates the 75th year of our independence on Monday when Prime Minister Narendra Modi shall address the Nation from the ramparts of the historic Red Fort. India has come a long way since Jawaharlal Nehru gave his passionate speech, `the tryst with destiny’ to mark the end of the British rule. Thereafter many Prime Ministers have used the occasion to present their vision of the way ahead and each one of them has contributed in some form or the other to take us forward. It is also a time to remember the martyrs such as Bhagat Singh, Sukhdev, Rajguru and many more, who did not hesitate to sacrifice their lives so that they could break the shackles of slavery. The immense contribution of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose and his Azad Hind Fauj as also the manner in which those who started the Sepoy revolt in 1857 even though they paid a heavy price, can never be forgotten and should never be forgotten either. There are always lessons in History also in every struggle. One of the speeches I remember was made by Indira Gandhi who said that till the time there was poverty, hunger and disease, real Independence cannot be achieved. This continues to be a daunting task and though the present government appears to be doing the right things regarding development, a lot more needs to be done in this huge and vast country where people have aspirations and hope from those who govern them. Am reminded of Khalil Gibran, who wrote that they say that if you see a slave sleeping, do not wake him, lest he is dreaming of freedom. I say that if you see a slave sleeping, wake him and explain to him the meaning of freedom’’. A grateful Nation should recall the services of millions of freedom fighters and leaders who participated in movements of various kinds, some peaceful and some not so peaceful. They had only one objective that was to see their country free. Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation provided direction to the masses when they needed it the most though he died shortly after Independence, a victim of hate politics. It was a time when the country was also trying to come to terms with the unfortunate Partition brought about by ambitious politicians who helped the British to divide the Nation. This partition could have easily been avoided had our leaders stood their ground without allowing Mohmmad Ali Jinnah to have his sinister way. India is today fortunate that it is a democracy like many other great countries and has an elected government by the ordinary people. This is in contrast with dictatorial regimes in many parts of the world or monarchies where freedom of every kind is curtailed and crushed by insecure rulers. Therefore, we must all count our blessings and think positively. John Kennedy’s famous words, often repeated by Nehru come to my mind, “Do not ask what your country can do for you but ask what you can do for your country’’. Jai hind.
25 years of Vishakha Guideline: Still a long way to go
On 13 August 1997, the three-judge bench comprising Chief Justice JS Verma, Justices Sujata V. Manohar and Justice B.N. Kirpal, pointed out the ‘Legal Vacuum’ and thus the lack of rule of law when it comes to protecting a woman at the workplace, which is still predominantly patriarchal in nature. The social milieu still promotes a culture of silence among women. The bench gave the historical judgment “Vishakha v State of Rajasthan” (AIR 1997 SC 3011), famously known as the Vishakha Guideline.
The historical judgement is a landmark on various counts. First, it made the International Convention, especially the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women as the basis for national legislations paving the way for progressive laws and state accountability towards the international commitments. Second, it recognised specific vulnerability of women at workplace and the gap in existing laws, which it termed as “legal vacuum”. Third, the bench did not restrict itself but creatively used the powers conferred on the Supreme Court under Article 141 and 142 and laid down elaborate guidelines to deal with the menace of sexual harassment against women at workplaces.
The judgment remains to be a landmark as it elaborated the beauty of the Indian Constitution towards protecting the rights of individuals under Articles 14, 19(1)(g) and 21, and the responsibility on the Indian State underArticles 51(c), 73, 253 and Seventh Schedule.. The apex court referred to the above provisions which envisage judicial intervention for eradication of this social evil and pronounced the following,
“In view of the above, and the absence of enacted law to provide for the effective enforcement of the basic human right of gender equality and guarantee against sexual harassment and abuse, more particularly against sexual harassment at work places, we lay down the guidelines and norms specified hereinafter for due observance at all work places or other institutions, until a legislation is enacted for the purpose. This is done in exercise of the power available under Article 32 of the Constitution for enforcement of the fundamental rights and it is further emphasised that this would be treated as the law declared by this Court under Article 141 of the Constitution.”
The guidelines were quite elaborate and specifically dealt with the following: duty of the employer or other responsible persons in work places and other institutions; definition especially as to what constitute sexual harassment; preventive steps; criminal proceedings; disciplinary action; complaint mechanism; complaints committee; workers’ initiative; awareness; and where sexual harassment occurs as a result of an act or omission by any third party or outsider. It also stated that the Central/state governments are requested to consider adopting suitable measures including legislation to ensure that the guidelines laid down by this order are also observed by the employers in private sector.
However, it took almost 15 years for the Parliament to convert the guidelines into a law, the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, in 2013. The moot question is why the legislature took so long to frame the law. Why is it that issues of gender continue to be given least priority by the Parliament even in times of an awakened human rights global world? Another illustrative example of the lethargy in legislating is seen evidently in the case of sexual crime victims of child marriage. The 2017 judgment of the Supreme Court in the matter, Independent Thought vs. Union of India [(2017) 10 SCC 800], where the top Court read down the Exception 2 of Section 375, Indian Penal Code (IPC), raising the age of Consent from 15 years to 18 years even for married girls at par with other girls. The same needs a formal amendment in the IPC, but even 5 years later the Government of India has not demonstrated any intent to make these changes. This is more so when the Prohibition of Child Marriage (Amendment) Bill, 2021 was tabled in the Parliament, making corresponding changes in various laws, the required amendment in IPC was missing.
The Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, 2013or the POSH law has indisputably come as an empowering tool for several working women and has strengthened the confidence in the ‘second sex’ to fearlessly voice her concerns with dignity. Since 2013, there has been a paradigm shift in the cloud of shame shifting from the complainant woman to the male accused of this act. The 2013 law mandates each organization with more than 10 employees to have an internal committee and a policy on prevention, prohibition, and redressal of sexual harassment at workplace for women. Further the Ministry of Corporate Affairs through the Companies (Accounts) Amendment Rules, 2018, makes ‘Disclosure of compliance under the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace Act in the annual reports of private companies as mandatory. The businesses must be made accountable for ensuring adherence to human rights principles and these are must for an equitable growth and achieving the sustainable development goals 2030.
With 25 years of the law in place, it is time to fully recognise the issue at hand as a human rights issue and not one of gender. Prevention, as they say, is always better than cure and what best to practise this than now, after two and a half decades of the law in place.
Vikram Srivastava is an advocate and founder of Independent Thought and Leena Prasad is an advocate and Associate Director, Advocacy, Research, and Training. Udayan Care.
India at 75: The empowered woman
Women are a reflection of ethics, loyalty, decisiveness and leadership, says PM Narendra Modi.
Among the many progressive measures by Prime Minister Modi, one that stands out for its sheer scale, size, reach and of course the manner in which it has revolutionized the lives of millions of Indian women, is the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY).Since inception, about 35 crore people have benefitted from total loans sanctioned, in excess of Rs 19 lakh crore. Of this 35 crore, over 70% of the beneficiaries are women, especially those belonging to the marginalised sections of the society. Similarly, cooking food,using a gas connection may not be a big deal for many but for the “eight crore-th” beneficiary of Modi’s Ujjwala scheme from Maharashtra, Ayesha Shaikh, getting a gas cylinder was nothing short of a major milestone.For this daily wager, Ayesha, who is a mother of five, from Ajanta village, the days of fetching dry wood from nearby areas for cooking on a humble ‘chulha’, billowing toxic smoke, are over.
India under PM Modi,has fully endorsed the United Nations in its “think equal, build smart, innovate for change’, motto, with regard to women empowerment. Now women have an opportunity to have permanent employment in the Indian Army and Indian Navy, something that was unthinkable earlier.
But if there is one thing that stirred the imagination of 1.4 billion people, more than anything else, it was PM Modi’s unabashed acknowledgement from the ramparts of the Red Fort, two years back,of how over 8000 Jan Aushadhi Kendras had provided around 5 crore sanitary pads at Re 1, to poor women in rural India. For Modi, an international leader of towering repute, to openly embrace and mainstream the issue of women hygiene,(menstruation) is not mere symbolism. By doing what he did, Modi sent a strong message,that for him, good governance is all about walking the talk, with no ifs and buts whatsoever.
From defining the nation’s first menstrual hygiene protocol, amending the Medical Termination Pregnancy Act of 1971,giving women reproductive rights over their bodies and increasing the fetal gestation period from 20 to 24 weeks, welcoming more women recruits in the NCC, which will now be extended to border and coastal areas, to criminalising the inhuman and unconstitutional practice of instant triple talaq and decision to increase marriageable age from 18 to 21 years for women, the Modi government has truly exhibited a bold, women friendly approach which is both mature and modern,and something,which no other government in post Independent India can dare boast of.
Banning commercial surrogacy which had led to mushrooming of illegal IVF and surrogacy clinics, was yet another bold move by the Modi government. According to the new laws, only married Indian couples, who have been together for a minimum of five years and have been deemed medically unfit by a doctor or practitioner to conceive children naturally,will be allowed to depend on a surrogate.
Women empowerment is not just about gender equality and gender justice. It also means more jobs, equal opportunities for growth and entrepreneurship. If there is one leader who has recognized women for what they are and who they are, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Whether it is providing free cooking gas via the famous PM Ujjwala Yojana ,or financial inclusion via PM Jan Dhan Yojana,or enabling women to leverage technology, a slew of schemes have been launched in recent years to empower women on the path of self reliance. Speaking of women empowerment, Mahila-E-Haat,a portal featuring 2000 products, is a bilingual online marketing platform that leverages technology to help aspiring women entrepreneurs, self-help groups (SHGs) and NGOs, to showcase their products and services.Among the many services provided by Mahila-E-Haat are, facilitating direct contact between the vendors and buyers and it is open to all Indian women above the age of 18.
The Modi government also launched the Mahila Shakti Kendra with presence in over 115 districts, to empower rural women with opportunities for skill development, employment, digital literacy, health and nutrition. The Modi government, few years back, also launched affordable “Working Women Hostels”, on a war footing, to ensure availability of safe and convenient accommodation for working women and single mothers, along with day-care facilities for their children, wherever possible in urban, semi-urban and rural areas.
Again, the Support to Training and Employment Programme for Women (STEP) scheme,is intended to benefit women who are in the age group of 16 years and above, across the country. The skills imparted include, but are not limited to, agriculture, horticulture, food processing, handlooms, tailoring, stitching, embroidery, zari, handicrafts, computers & IT-enabled services. Also,the Modi government’s Beti Bachao Beti Padhao initiative, is so much more than being just a mission statement, best exemplified by the surge in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Haryana, from 871 in 2015,to 914 in 2017, with districts like Panipat and Yamunanagar reporting SRB of 945 and 943 for every 1000 males. The increase in overall sex ratio is a combination of increased life expectancy of women and improvement in the sex ratio at birth or the number of female births for every 1000 male births. While the SRB last year rose to 929,the overall sex ratio stood at 1020 females for every 1000 males, with number of females exceeding number of males, for the first time ever. That again is a good sign. To cut a long story short, on every conceivable parameter, girls in India are far safer today than they were, say eight years back. Modi, is a truly progressive statesman with a liberated mindset; modern, sensitive, a thinking leader, who has uplifted scores of women by strengthening policy making tools, to deliver, where it matters most.
Sweeping amendments to the Juvenile Justice (Care & Protection of Children) Act of 2015, lowers the trial age for heinous crimes like rape and murder from 18 years, to 16 years. A 16-year-old will now be treated and punished like any other adult as per due process of law, under Sections 376 and 302 of the Indian Penal Code, which bodes well for young girls who are victims of sexual assault. Leftist cheerleaders who have been mocking the Beti Bachao campaign, would do well to know that the Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana, to facilitate the education of the girl child, has already reached out to more than 4 crore aspirational young women. Unarguably, however, the landmark achievement of the BJP government to further the cause of “Beti Bachao”, has been the over 11 crore toilets built in rural India under the “Swachh Bharat Abhiyan”, scheme.
Again, India has over 73,000 startups, with at least 45% of them having women entrepreneurs. Over 15% of India’s 105 Unicorns have women as the founders and that number is rapidly growing. Out of 78 ministers post the cabinet expansion in July 2021, 11 in Modi’s cabinet today, are women. This is the highest number of women in the Union Council of Ministers in the last 17 years.
“Women empowerment is crucial to India’s growth. Days of seeing women as just ‘home makers’ have gone, we have to see women as nation builders”, is something Narendra Modi tweeted in January 2014,even before he became the PM and that tweet sums up the progressive mindset of the Modi government, in more ways than one.Most importantly,India’s 15th President, Droupadi Murmu,is the embodiment of how “naari shakti” in Modi’s India, is essentially about the ability to dream, the willingness to work hard and the determination to succeed, unwaveringly and undeterred. That Murmu is also the first tribal leader who is now India’s First Citizen, as India celebrates 75 years of independence, makes Murmu’s achievements even more notable. Suffice to conclude by saying that in Modi’s India,a Santhali woman from a remote village in Mayurbhanj district in Odisha,is today the proud occupant of Raisina Hill. That inspiring journey of Droupadi Murmu is also an ode to the farsightedness and astute vision of PM Modi,who remains one of the most popular leaders globally and for good reason.
Ms Sanju Verma is an Economist, National Spokesperson for BJP and Bestselling Author of “The Modi Gambit”.
Digital Independence: Are we too late?
In this century each of our lives is in a world where both our Physical beings and Digital being is playing a significant role in our daily lives. In contrast to our physical lives, we are barely aware of how our data sourced from our digital life is being used by its custodians, which might not necessarily be a government, but can instead be a multinational corporation which is based in a developed country, such as the United States.
People who live within the sovereign boundary of a country, their identity, information, and privacy are kept secured by the country or precisely by the government, like India. The Indian government relentlessly puts effort to safeguard the data of the citizens. But who does look after the very data– when people coexist across numerous virtual locations within a ‘web’? How much are our identity and our data “safe” in that connected world? As data turns increasingly digital, a fierce race for ownership of data emerges simultaneously.
Facebook can be considered a bright example to understand the phenomenon. According to Wikipedia, “if India’s Facebook audience were a country then it would be ranked in terms of the largest population worldwide”. Although Facebook is not a country, this American company holds a huge amount of data, including personal and private information, of more than 239.65 million Indians. Facebook not only holds our personal information but also tracks our daily routines, habits, behaviour, and communication. This extent of information about 239.65 million Indians is enough to help Facebook to influence decisions, both democratic and consumerist, at an individual level. The influence of Facebook on individual choices is known to all when it comes to what product they are to buy next. It is now a well-known fact that how it unleashed the prowess of its data bank during the Presidential elections in its own country. That makes one wonder, would they have any restrictions when it comes to the sovereignty of a democratic nation? Will they care to spare, for their benefit?
There was a time when the British, Dutch, French, Portuguese or Spanish, all went on “expeditions” to faraway lands. The British Queen Elizabeth the first was known for her enthusiasm for “exploring the sea”. History records the account of how their expedition turned into “Business” before they unleashed their spree to colonise. Eventually, they took complete control over the countries, making the indigenous territories to be their “subjects”. Though after the Second World War, this way of capturing markets fell out of fashion and later became extinct.
It is often said that «Data is to this century what oil was to the last one: a driver of growth and change. Flows of data have created new infrastructure, new businesses, new monopolies, new politics and—crucially—new economics.» Governments in various parts of the world are already fighting battles with tech giants for the fear of losing sovereignty over their people or jeopardising their security. It is essentially because colonising a country no longer requires an invasion with the military and war, but can simply be done by controlling activities through networks and databases with a single click from distant lands.
The use of the internet has exponentially increased in the last decade with the evolution of the Web from Web2.0 to Web 4.0, offering individuals a plethora of benefits of a connected world—be it communication or making a payment with a single click. When we give our data to Google Maps, we know we’re giving our private information in exchange for a traffic-free route to our destination — and we do this without thinking about how our personal data may be used by Google. And in the due course, we all are entangled in the apparently free web! Aren’t we?
Today our data is monitored, controlled and sold off by America to the whole world. This dominance of data is creating and contributing to the hegemony and monopoly of multinational corporations all around the world. This leaves us extremely vulnerable to the entire world. Because we do not expect a thief to be morally righteous. Gradually, borders will not decide control over people or a nation. Instead, control over data will be the key power. The future will become the slave of s/he who owns the data!
The Prime Minister leads the government with the mighty vision of making India Self-reliant—be it Food, Vaccines, Commodities or Defense machinery. It is about time that the government takes bold steps to make India “Self-Reliant” in the Digital space, to let not India become a colony once again! Before it becomes too late, all governments should join hands with the Union government to bring policies and techniques to safeguard our integrity and data sovereignty. The government must pledge to march for digital self-reliance.
But, what can an ordinary person do?
“We the people of India” should also realize the threat which we are already in and how malicious it can become. We need to raise our voices against this daylight robbery. But then, the question emerges “How could it be stopped? Where is the way out from this?” How can one live without the Digital World? After all, India certainly doesn’t want to fall behind in the race for growth and prosperity!
India is a country which is praised across the world for its innovations. If we look at the statistics, all the tech giants, those who are robbing us of, are run by none other than the Indian nationals, now settled abroad. Hence, would it be too much to dream that the Indians in India can make apps? Yes, it is difficult. But is it impossible?
“Qmamu”, the search engine stands shining bright as an alternative to Google and an answer to that doubt. Besides, Koo as an alternative to Twitter has already caught the attention of the netizens as per the data. Chingari, Josh, Moj, Mirtron, Leher, Kutumb all are made in India. There is no dearth of innovation and options in India.
India can robustly come up with search engines like Qmamu and apps like Koo, Josh, Chingari for each digital need, then one day the world will not only praise India as a nation with one of the most powerful militaries but also as a nation which is “Digitally Independent” with a strong Digital Defense Mechanism.
We must act, before it’s too late to become Digital Atmanirbhar Bharat.
PKD Nambiar is a Marketing Strategist, Entrepreneur and
a Political Anaylist.
INDIA NEEDS TO NUDGE NEPAL NOT TO FALL PREY TO CHINA’S DEBT-TRAP DIPLOMACY
Nepal’s foreign minister Narayan Khadka visited China and held a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi early this week amid apprehensions expressed by several experts that “Beijing is encouraging Kathmandu to live luxuriously with it on loan”. There are reports also, saying that the Nepalese foreign minister has “returned a happy man from China who offered Nepal a huge grant in return for Kathmandu’s assurances to stick to “One China’ policy. Is this an alarm bell for another debt-trap? This question is being raised now as India watched closely the Nepalese foreign minister’s visit to China and his various diplomatic and economic engagements out there. While India has been regularly cautioning all the neighbouring countries including Kathmandu against China’s debt-trap diplomacy, it needs to nudge Nepal more vigorously not to fall prey to this trap, given the reports about Beijing intensifying efforts to expand its influence in the Himalayan region. That Nepal should learn from Sri Lanka’s experience is what External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has underlined on several occasions. At the Munich Security Conference in February this year, Jaishankar without naming China, criticized Beijing for the debt-trap diplomacy it indulges in and cautioned the countries in the neighbourhood not to fall into the trap. He advised them to make “informed decisions”.
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as he arrived for a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing last month.
But what is worrisome is that China is consistently trying to convince Nepal to be mindful only of its own development “which is not possible without financial assistance from Beijing’. The Chinese diplomats over the last few months have reportedly been meeting their Nepalese counterparts with one luring offer or the other. The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi during his talks with the Nepalese counterpart is learnt to have mounted pressure on Kathmandu to accept Beijing’s investment (read irrevocable debt) proposals. Wang Yi is also understood to have tried hard to carry forward the agenda to increase Chinese influence in Nepal by ensnaring the Himalayan nation in an “endless cycle of debt”.
According to Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Yi and Khadka discussed enhancing, among other things, “bilateral trade, connectivity network, health, tourism, agriculture, education.” Beijing reportedly assured Kathmandu to provide it with a 118 million USD grant for certain projects. This is what the Chinese government led by Xi Jinping used to do for Sri Lanka. What exposes Chinese ulterior motive is that not a single project has, so far, been completed under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for which an MoU had been signed in 2017 when Pushpa Kamal Dahal was the prime minister of Nepal. Why is China not working on the existing projects under the BRI when it is so caring about development in the Himalayan nation? It means that the Chinese government is using the BRI agreements as a weapon only to entrap the smaller and economically weaker countries like Nepal under the garb of infrastructure development, promising cheap loans. This is something that Kathmandu should avoid getting into. Unfortunately, Colombo could not resist the temptation of cheap Chinese loans offered on the pretext of development of infrastructure in the island nation. Many fear that China is trying to implement the same Sri Lankan formula to boost its debt-trap diplomacy in Nepal as well by luring it with Beijing sourced cheap projects.
India needs to drive home the message in Nepal more forcefully that New Delhi’s goodwill comes with no strings attached. Moreover, Kathmandu should be vigilant and should learn from what happened in Colombo and other countries which signed ‘so-called’ agreements with China. Nepal needs to be reminded time and again that China through its infrastructure projects is making inroads in the Himalayan region in a bid to work against New Delhi’s interests only. In fact, China has nothing to do with the development of Nepal as its motive is something else. This is something that the Nepalese government should not close its eyes to. What is relieving is that Nepal under Sher Bahadur Deuba has so far played it safe. Unlike KP Oli who was pro-China, Deuba is moving cautiously in terms of diplomacy with Beijing. After assuming charge last year, he made his first international trip to India this April, with a visit to the holy city of Kashi added to the itinerary. He also promised not to allow use of Nepal’s soil for any anti-India activities, with an obvious reference to the Chinese agenda. However, India needs to maintain a close watch over dynamics of ties between Kathmandu and Beijing. After all, it is money that matters.
Global geopolitics at the Line of Actual Control
It causes concern in New due to its striking similarity with the Chinese display of strength through the violation of Taiwanese Air Defence Identification in East China Sea. The article investigates the patterns behind the Chinese expansionist designs in its neighbourhood and whether India already has begun to be treated as an actor which can thwart such efforts.
Since the Galwan Valley incident in June 2020, Indian and Chinese armed forces have been locked in an intense standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. To resolve the issue, the 16th Round of talks on the LAC at the Chushul-Moldo meeting point ended recently. Several issues pertaining to patrolling and location of forces have already been resolved in preceding deliberations. The current round holds significance for two reasons. First, it is happening in the backdrop of United States House of Representatives Speaker, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. China has reacted very strongly to the visit, both diplomatically and militarily. Second, China has with increasing frequency flown its combat aircraft and Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) close to the LAC. It causes concern in New Delhi due to its striking similarity with the Chinese display of strength through the violation of Taiwanese Air Defence Identification (ADIZ) in East China Sea. The article investigates the patterns behind the Chinese expansionist designs in its neighbourhood and whether India already has begun to be treated as an actor which can thwart such efforts.
Comprehending China’s proclivity for assertions of sovereign claims is a task that has confounded both policymakers and strategists alike in the region. In East China Sea, the region where Taiwan is located, the Chinese claims reach further east to threaten Japan over Senkaku Islands. The South China Sea is rife with claims and counter claims by China, Philippines and Vietnam apart from Indonesia, for which the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) overlaps with China. Chinese approach, since its increased stature due to its growing economic clout has been to subdue states into submission and agreements. It has been successful in most of the border and territorial disputes viz. Russia, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar. In the case of Vietnam, Japan and India it has been less successful diplomatically and militarily. Therefore, it adopts a gradual and incremental approach to achieve its objectives. In turn, this may be reflection of the regional standing and power of these countries. The dispute with Taiwan, in its historical circumstances, may be different. The Taiwanese situation, however, and the latest Chinese response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit provides hints and clues to its actions.
Taking a cue from the Chinese actions over Taiwan strait and frequent violations of the ADIZ, the Indian establishment has raised concerns over the recent activity in Ladakh. Chinese approach is to normalize People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s air sorties and RPAS flights very close to the LAC. New Delhi and its armed forces must be attentive and ready that the frequency of air activity will increase and gradually the aircraft will fly more closer to the LAC. The recent standoff and subsequent negotiations have focused on reducing the tensions and desisting from provocative actions from either side. At the end of the current round of deliberations, a Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson revealed that a four-point consensus was arrived at during the talks between the top-level commanders. These four points don’t yield much in terms of their content regarding the issues at the LAC. Focusing on the need to carry on the negotiations and improving upon the bilateral relations in other fields is the gist of the consensus. The third point of the consensus refers to “effectively manage and control differences, as well as safeguard the security and stability in border areas until the issue is solved”, which means naught and is another way to convey that discussions should continue. This definitely works in favour of Beijing which may be biding this tough phase owing to the Taiwan crisis in the East. Point four of the consensus is a step back in time as it refers “to maintain communication and dialogue, and reach a mutually acceptable solution as soon as possible” and is effectively the phrase used by the Chinese during the beginning of the crisis. New Delhi and the commanders may do well to refer to the initial phase of the talks when the crisis started in May 2020.
The broader ramification of the protracted nature of the negotiations at the LAC is that India now has clarity on Chinese deeds and words. India has entered into a new phase of the global geopolitical competition. A significant strategic component of the United States of America’s (US) pivot to Asia is its sustained attention and effort to India. Recent announcement of joint annual exercise ‘Yudh Abhyas’, literally meaning War Practice by the US and India is another instance of military cooperation between the two countries. ‘Yudh Abhyas’ will be carried out in October and happens approximately 100 kms. from the disputed border between India and China. It will focus on ‘high-altitude warfare training’. The larger context is explained by a statement of the US Defense Department that “Partnership with India is one of the most important elements of our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region”. The connect with global geopolitics is made amply clear. In a first, US Navy Ship Charles Drew arrived at Kattupalli Shipyard near Chennai for repairs following the agreements signed with the United States.
It will be an understatement to say that the new Cold War has set in, and New Delhi has major stakes as China has disputed land borders with India where friction is normal. Territorial and border disputes may not evoke the nationalist fervour as does the issue of Taiwan in China; however, they are matters of national prestige. Going by Chinese actions and intentions at the border, India needs to emphasize an early resolution of remaining issues at the border. Chinese remain the masters of the gradual encroachments and waiting game.
On the other hand, India over the last two decades has built a network of partnerships which will be crucial to overcome Chinese belligerence in the region, both at the land borders and in the Indian Ocean/ Indo-Pacific region. Strategic thinkers and policy makers alike have been keen to see India as an important actor in global geopolitics. Therefore, it is required that clarity and focus on Chinese words and actions remains a primary objective while strengthening Indo-Pacific partnerships intact.
The author is Associate Professor of Political Geography and Geopolitics at the Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, JNU.
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