After promising 2 million jobs for the youth of the state on Independence Day, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has once again thrown the spotlight on unemployment and creation of jobs in political discourse of the country. It is not something new, though, as all political parties make such wild promises every time there are elections round the corner. They forget such tall promises as soon as elections are over. Parties making such promises simply do not bother about them after coming to power.
Unemployment and creation of jobs became a hot topic in 2019 parliamentary elections. The BJP had come to power in 2014 on twin planks of corruption and unemployment. The party promised to provide over 2 crore jobs every year, but failed miserably to fulfil it. Finding himself cornered on the issue by the Opposition, Prime Minister Narendra Modi defended his government saying self-employment had significantly increased during his first term. He even considered selling pakodas on a roadside cart could be an attractive employment opportunity for the young aspirants that led to a lot of hue and cry mong various sections of citizenry.
However, such poll promises are given an unceremonious burial as soon as they have served their purpose—lure the voters. The reason is that the Opposition is not strong enough to rally people around the issue and make it cause worth fighting for. It is no surprise then that the issue petered out after 2019. But this time around Nitish has added a new dimension to the issue.
There are two reasons why the topic is drawing so much attention. First, he had ridiculed a similar promise RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had made during 2020 assembly elections that, if voted to power, his government would provide 10 lakh jobs. Nitish asked him how he would create so many jobs, where are the resources?
Nitish was then an alliance partner of the BJP-led NDA and he thought Tejashwi’s promise was making a profound impact on the aspiring youth of the state. So, he questioned Tejashwi’s poll promise.
The second reason is that Nitish’s volte face has forced the BJP to sit up. The party may find it difficult in the state if the promise of 20 lakh jobs makes an impact on voters in coming elections. Political observers feel that Nitish’s parting ways with his alliance partner BJP was a considered decision. He knows that it is his last innings as chief minister. If he had stayed with the BJP, he would have not been made chief minister again after the next assembly elections. But he may hold to the chair since he is with RJD now. The reason is his party JD(U) is losing steam and there is no face as powerful as Nitish in the party. It would have been logical, therefore, for the BJP to deny him the high chair in 2025. The BJP might have as well orchestrated his party’s merger with it. It is also possible that JD(U) may merge with RJD in days to come.
There is every likelihood, according to political pundits, that Tejashwi might seek the chief minister’s chair for himself either before the parliamentary elections or after assembly elections. Nitish, perhaps, has already seen such a possibility and has started playing his cards accordingly. His statements and acts so far indicate that he is eying Delhi. Nitish is well aware of the fact that there is no alternative to Prime Minister Modi at present and the Opposition has not yet a leader who could challenge Modi. The Congress party is finding itself on a sticky wicket on the issues of nepotism and corruption.
Under such circumstances, political analysts say, Nitish might give prime ministerial candidacy a shot in 2024. Though he might not create a major impact in other states, if his party and RJD win all 40 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP may find it difficult to form government at the Centre.
After Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, Bihar is the third state which returns the largest number of parliamentarians. The BJP and JD(U) had together won 39 Lok Sabha seats out of 40. The BJP might have come back to power in Maharashtra by engineering a vertical split in the Shiv Sena, but if the Udhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress are able to hold together till 2024, the BJP may not be able to repeat the success it had in 2019.
Nitish is undoubtedly a seasoned politician. He knows it well that making the promise of providing 20 lakh jobs would certainly win youth over to the Grand Alliance. He is also aware of the fact that providing 20 lakh jobs is a tall order. There is no doubt that in the present worsening economic scenario it will be nigh impossible for any state government to create jobs in such big numbers. When he was an NDA partner, he had said that RJD chief Lalu Yadav had provided only 95,000 jobs in 15 years of his rule, whereas his government provided over 6 lakh jobs.
As far as unemployment is concerned, Haryana has the highest number of the unemployed and Bihar has the third largest number of the unemployed. However, there are 3 lakh posts lying vacant in the state Education Department alone. If the vacancies in all government departments are collated, the numbers stand at around 7–8 lakh, far less a number than promised. Tejashwi has stated that the government has already started work in this direction and the chief minster did not make the promise just for the heck of it. The BJP, on the other hand, has challenged him and has asked to present a blue print first as it is not possible under prevailing dismal economic situation.
The overall job situation in both the government and the private sectors is gloomy at best in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, with almost no significant employment generation. Businesses and enterprises in unorganised sector are facing an unprecedented squeeze with dwindling incomes. Bihar is no exception where industry is in shambles. The number of registered unemployed persons in Bihar stood at 78 lakh till March 2021 and 30 lakh more have been added to the numbers.
Undoubtedly, Nitish has made the promise in view of the coming parliamentary elections, but the issue has the potential to dent the BJP’s electoral performance in 2024. The BJP knows it well and has already started making strategies to counter that.
Ajit Maindola is a senior journalist.