It was a couple of months ago when in several of my columns and write-ups, I had predicted that the danger to the INDIA bloc could come from three individuals—Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal and Sharad Pawar—. While how the story would unfold so far as Kejriwal and Pawar go is not known as yet, but by once again switching sides on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls, Nitish Kumar has unveiled his ambition of remaining in power. Nothing wrong with that, but what it has done in the process is something which is unpardonable.
However, in politics it is said that everything is fair and the late Karpoori Thakur, who was conferred the Bharat Ratna a few days ago, and who Nitish considers to be one of his mentors, would not have certainly been proud of his disciple. It is another matter that many of Karpoori Thakur’s followers including Lalu Prasad Yadav and the late Ram Bilas Paswan, had also left a lot to be desired. Nitish has shown that for a politician, the story was only about power and nothing else, even if it amounts to erosion of credibility. The switchover was perhaps also necessitated by the fact that in the Lok Sabha polls where he was demanding 17 seats, he would have been thoroughly exposed since the last time when his party got 16 out of the 17 seats, it was because of its tie-up with the BJP.
So far as the BJP is concerned, its decision to support a Nitish Kumar led government in the State is a candid admission of its leadership that in Bihar, the Ram Temple politics may not have worked, since the answer is in its deep-rooted caste equations which would not be affected by the Ayodhya developments. In other words, the BJP was feeling unsure of what would happen in Bihar which could have been one state, where the Opposition would have not allowed it to better its 2019 performance, and more than the Hindutva card, the caste issue was going to be decisive.
The BJP was never confident about Bihar as it was of Uttar Pradesh where besides the Ram Temple narrative, Yogi Adityanath remains very popular and a solid second in command for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The other dimension of what Nitish has done is that he has inadvertently strengthened the RJD of Lalu Prasad Yadav, who would enter the electoral arena on a positive note.
Other than the Chief Ministership, Nitish brings nothing to the BJP and its alliance, and may thus be more vulnerable now than what he was during his association with the RJD. The BJP government at the Centre can always dismiss the State government and clamp President’s rule if any kind of instability or suspicious political movement comes to notice. The BJP in this scenario has nothing to lose. Either way it shall now be in control of the State till elections get over. Nitish has brought a bad name to the erstwhile socialists, who have time and again proved to be the greatest disrupters of the political processes.
Without being disrespectful to many of his predecessors, the socialists have on more occasions than one, brought down governments. The Morarji Desai dispensation at the Centre, post-emergency was brought down by the socialists led by the late Raj Narain who by raising the dual membership issue concerning the former Jana Sangh members, made things extremely difficult. Perhaps that was justified to some degree by Raj Narain’s followers. However, the consequences were grave for the Janata Party and Charan Singh who became the Prime Minister, could never face the Parliament and resigned, thus paving for the return of Indira Gandhi. It is said of socialists that when they are not fighting with others then they are quarrelling amongst themselves.
And they cannot remain together for more than two years and apart for more than three. This kind of political behaviour cannot be condoned, and unless there is some sort of stable thinking, there is no way things can work out in the future. While backing Nitish Kumar, Modi must have swallowed his pride in giving the go-ahead. For Modi at this juncture, nothing matters but winning the 2024 polls and if he has curbed his natural instinct of resorting to vengeance, it is for a larger cause of bringing his party back to power. However, it is difficult to imagine that this arrangement would continue for long since the fact is that both the parties are using each other, and would do so till they find an alternative.
Nitish has so far been very lucky and has managed to keep his position intact even though the Congress on Sunday called him a Chameleon. In fact, he is more than that and it is unlikely that his game can last for too long after being thoroughly exposed. So many cartoons circulating on the WhatsApp circuit and social media show him in poor light. As mentioned earlier, the BJP has inadvertently given out a message by supporting him that it could not bank on the Ram Temple issue alone. Bringing in religion into politics has its pitfalls and advantages, and in a social scenario with sharp caste divisions, the Hindu card does not always bring in political dividends.
In the political narrative which was going so smoothly in favour of the BJP, its leadership has perhaps made a miscalculation. It should always be remembered as was reiterated in “the Godfather”, that the saddest thing about betrayal is that it never comes from your enemies.