With the announcement of snapping ties with the BJP by AIADMK in TN, a new alignment of parties is on the cards in TN. There is no reason to believe that reproachment would happen between AIADMK and BJP, as both have their own strategies and calculations for the 2024 general elections. The reason cited by AIADMK that the BJP TN leadership insulted Annadurai, the founder of DMK, is an alibi to come out of the NDA. The TN BJP leader did not say anything that was not recorded in the history of TN.
The first question is why the AIADMK has been nervous about its relationship with the BJP for quite some time. Some leaders in the AIADMK strongly believe that they have lost the Abrahamic religious votes completely after they tied up with the BJP. M. Karunanidhi broke ties with the NDA in 2004, when the same fear gripped him and joined hands with the UPA for the 2004 general elections. By now snapping ties with the BJP, AIADMK may think that it may chip into the votes of Abrahamic voters that have become the unencumbered chattel of DMK. The second question is why AIADMK showed a hurry in snapping ties with the BJP when seven months are left for the general elections in 2024. Congress and I.N.D.I.A. partners have been greatly embarrassed by the continuous utterances of the DMK against Sanatan Dharma, the delimitation exercise, and speeches on fissiparous tendencies at the drop of a hat. This will not augur well for Congress in the four state assembly elections, let alone the 2024 general elections.
AIADMK knew that if given the opportunity, Congress may prefer to align with AIADMK, as it will save the face of Congress from the huge disadvantage that DMK put Congress in. Congress also knew that it was next to impossible to get 10 parliament seats in the DMK alliance in the 2024 general elections as it did in the 2019 general elections, as DMK is a ruling party in TN now and showed Congress its place in the 2021 TN Assembly elections by allocating 25 seats (which is equivalent to 4 Lok Sabha seats). The other insignificant partners of the DMK also knew that their share of seats would be reduced if they continued in the DMK alliance. AIADMK hence thought that it should open a window for Congress and alliance partners of DMK to switch to AIADMK alliance. If they join the AIADMK alliance, the DMK partners will also escape from the anti-incumbency that started in Tennessee against the DMK government. DMK may not do much to retain Congress or other alliance partners in its fold if they wish to leave the alliance. Since the 2019 general elections, DMK has decimated its alliance partners by forcing them to contest in the DMK symbol. It is next to impossible for these parties to resurrect themselves, as they don’t have any locus standi on any issue. So, if DMK gives one seat or denies the seat to them, they have at least now a choice to move towards AIADMK, which will be forthcoming in granting better treatment for them.
Congress and left parties contested with their respective symbols in the DMK alliance. But they hardly have a say in TN politics. Congress lost its nationalistic fervour completely to the BJP, and for voters with a nationalistic fervour, the BJP is Hobson’s choice. None of the I.N.D.I.A. partners would stop Congress from leaving the DMK alliance in TN, as they were extremely anxious about the outbursts of the DMK, which would have reverberations all over India.
Is the BJP flabbergasted with the decision of AIADMK? It knew that AIADMK may leave the alliance, as AIADMK did not relish the growth of the BJP at the expense of AIADMK. For BJP supporters, both DMK and AIADMK are similar, whether it is on corruption and misgovernance. On the appeasement of Abrahamic religious people, DMK has been overt, whereas AIADMK has been covert.
The realignment of parties may lead to a three-cornered contest. The BJP now is not the same as it was in 2019, when anti-Modi sentiments stirred by the media and social media were at their peak. DMK coming to power in the 2021 assembly elections was a God-sent opportunity for the BJP to expose the unrealistic promises, misgovernance, and huge corruption that entangled the family members of the TN CM. The TN BJP leadership capitalised on it by highlighting all the omissions and commissions of the DMK government, whereas AIADMK remained a mute spectator, hoping that things would change on their own. With nine years of central government governance and the percolation of various welfare schemes in TN, the BJP has gained much better traction with the electorate of TN. DMK remained stagnant, with its cadres from top to bottom occupying the position in a dynastic pattern. AIADMK has been unable to attract new talent to its party fold. By giving opportunities to work in the party to many newcomers, the BJP leveraged the gap among the youth who wanted to venture into politics. Multiple opinion polls indicated that the BJP has independently attained 15%–20% support since 2021 and is on the verge of growing aggressively. It is now able to garner the anti-incumbency votes of the DMK government as well as slicing a substantial portion of the AIADMK votes.
It won’t be a surprise if the 2024 general election contest turns out to be a direct contest between the DMK and BJP, leaving the AIADMK in the third position.
The author is a Railway Policy Expert after having obtained his Doctorate from IIM Ahmedabad
