The NDA is comfortably placed to make a comeback to power in Bihar. This time, however, it would be the BJP that spears to be emerging as the single largest party much ahead of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD-U, if a latest opinion poll is to be believed.
As per the poll data released by IANS ABP-CVoter, Nitish Kumar-led NDA comprising JD-U and BJP alliance will get 135-159 seats in the Assembly elections, getting a clear majority. The BJP will be the largest party in the assembly as per the opinion with 73-81 seats while JD-U will get between 59-87 seats.
As per the opinion poll, the RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan alliance will get 77-98 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP is an also ran with a projection of 1-5 seats while other parties get 4-8 seats. Tejashwi Yadav led RJD is projected to win the lion’s share of 56-64 seats while the Congress will win 12-20 seats.
The range of seats projections in the political regions based on Lok Sabha mapping shows the NDA will get between 16-20 seats in east Bihar, 36-44 in Magadh-Bhojpur, 27-31 in Mithilanchal, 45-49 in north Bihar and 11-15 in the Seemanchal region.
The BJP will have the best strike rate in the elections of 70 per cent as it is expected to win 77 seats out of 110 it is contesting. The JD-U will have a much lower strike rate of 54.8 per cent by 63 leads in 115 seats that it is contesting.
Interestingly, as many as 61 per cent Bihar voters feel that Chirag Paswan’s LJP and BJP are actually working hand in glove with each other. As per the opinion poll findings, 61 per cent said LJP and BJP are actually working hand in glove with each other. There have been murmurs that Chirag Paswan is attacking Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and supporting the BJP in the state elections.
While Chirag Paswan has decided to go solo in Bihar elections, on the other hand he is praising PM Modi and talking about forming alliance with BJP post elections. In an answer to a question whether there is confusion among the voter, as many as 57.7 per cent said there is confusion while 42.3 per cent said there is no confusion.
Also, more than 60 per cent Bihar voters think that post elections BJP and JD-U will have a tussle over the Chief Minister post, if the BJP wins more seats. About 60.9 per cent voters believe that there will be a tussle between the alliance partners, BJP and JDU while 39.1 per cent feel otherwise. Nitish Kumar has been projected as the face of the campaign and the CM candidate.
The poll sample size is 30,678 and the period of the survey is 1-23October. The total tracker sample size is 60,000 plus in last 12 weeks. The methodology is covering all 243 Assembly segments and the margin error is +/- 3% at State level and +/-5% at regional level.
Data is weighted to the known Census profile, including Gender, Age, Education, Rural/Urban, Religion and Caste apart from the voting recalls for last Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.
WITH IANS INPUTS
