It was the height of the first wave of Covid in 2020 and Maldives had to go on a lockdown for a few months like the rest of the world. A near-zero tourist footfall in a country whose tiny economy of around US$6 billion is totally dependent on tourism, it was a death blow, pushing Maldivians towards penury. Maldives was about to go belly-up when India, to save that country from sinking, opened an air bubble to Male. It was a time when no other country was open for tourism, and Maldives witnessed a deluge of Indian tourists hungry to travel. India literally saved the nation of 5.21 lakh people and 1,192 islands from witnessing Sri Lanka-level disruption.
This rush to Maldives continued even after the second wave of Covid in 2021 and right up to 2023, as the then government of Ibrahim Solih promoted the archipelago in India in a major way. All this has ensured that Indians are still among the top tourist arrivals in Maldives for over three years. The level of the helping hand that India extended to Maldives would be clear from the fact that in 2021, India gifted one lakh Covid vaccine doses to the archipelago, as well as a $50-million line of credit for defence related matters including developing and maintaining a naval facility for the armed forces of Maldives. In fact, Maldives was the first country to get the vaccine Covishield from India.
In India’s neighbourhood, it was also the largest recipient of assistance at the time of coronavirus, including major financial assistance. India has been doing a lot of development work in Maldives, including major infrastructure development, in an attempt to counter China. Between 2018 and 2023, Maldives under President Ibrahim Solih had an “India first” policy and relations with India that had nosedived in the time of his predecessor—Abdulla Yameen, who was both pro Chinese and terribly corrupt—thrived.
The strategic importance of Maldives for both India and China can be understood from that fact that this country has one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world because its islands are spread over a large area in the Indian Ocean.
Maldives is located in the midpoint between Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Malacca, thus right in the middle of some of the world’s busiest sea lanes for trade and energy. China has been trying to bring Maldives under its influence for a long time not only because it wants to control or keep an eye on the sea lanes, but also as part of its “string of pearls” strategy to encircle India, with the threat of having a military base close to Indian shores hanging in the air. In fact, increasing Chinese presence in Maldives also threatens the US military base of Diego Garcia, which is right next door, as the Chinese can use Maldives as a listening post. No wonder China wanted the government of Ibrahim Solih out and stoked the Opposition’s “India Out” campaign, making the presence of a mere 77 personnel for disaster response, etc., an issue of sovereignty and national pride.
The propaganda against India was fever pitch, which brought to power Mohamed Muizzu, who has the backing of Abdulla Yameen. Relations have gone downhill ever since, and in these social media-dominated times, a simple visit to Lakshadweep by Prime Minister Narendra Modi—who did not mention Maldives even once in his tweets—has triggered enough of Muizzu’s ministers for them to go on a racist rant against both the Prime Minister and Indians in general. Although some damage control has been done by the Maldives government, by suspending the ministers responsible for such derogatory posts, the larger question is, for how long Muizzu will run on the hot air of his “India Out” campaign rhetoric.
He has to deliver governance. Now that Maldives has hit the headlines in India, with even those unaware of the “India Out” campaign now fully cognizant, there is bound to be some impact on the arrival of Indian tourists to Maldives. Who wants to visit a country that is contemptuous towards one? In terms of numbers, Indians apparently comprise around 11% of Maldives’ total tourism business. But then for a tiny economy like Maldives, even 1% loss is a huge loss and 11% is too huge a figure. Muizzu, who has been busy paying obeisance to Beijing, does not seem to have realised that China is bound to show its fangs sooner than later and suck Maldives into its debt trap. Unlike China, India does not have predatory instincts. China did not save Maldives during Covid. India did.
Culturally too, the two countries are much closer than what the Chinese will ever be to the Maldivians. There is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that the Chinese have got into trouble with the local population, because of the former’s insistence on changing even signboards in luxury resorts to Mandarin from English. Even otherwise, Maldives has earned itself a bad name as a hub for Wahhabi extremism. Many foreign tourists have been attacked by Wahhabis. If this continues, greater trouble awaits Maldives. So Muizzu has his job cut out. He needs to govern, control extremism. All that he is doing now is destroying Maldives’ India market.